Another Hot Day Ahead As The Heat Wave Continues

It appears we're in the running for another hot and muggy day with highs reaching the upper 90s near 100 along with heat index values from 105 to 109. Another heat advisory will be required for most of Eastern OK this afternoon before we slowly begin to experience some changes in the weather leading us to a not as hot and humid weekend. Temperatures will still reach the mid-90s this weekend, but heat index values should not trigger any widespread heat advisories for most of the area. A few spotty showers and storms will be possible, beginning today across eastern OK, and remaining in the forecast for the weekend across a few areas of Eastern OK. These pops are extremely low but not zero chances. A weak outflow boundary may be near northeastern OK this morning and could produce a quick sunrise surprise shower or two. This chance remains extremely low. A weak front nears southern Kansas Saturday evening into Sunday before slowly either becoming diffuse or possibly lifting back to the north by Monday. The presence of this front near the state will keep a few mentions of storms for northeastern OK and southeastern Kansas but only low probabilities can be offered under the current set of data. But in the short term, it’s another day of hot and humid weather with highs in the metro near 100 with heat index values nearing 109 by 3 p.m.

Our main concerns will be more southward this weekend as a tropical system develops near the western Caribbean and travels into the Gulf of Mexico Sunday into Monday. This yet-to-form system may become a formidable hurricane with impacts across the southeastern U.S. coastal region, including southeast Texas or southern Louisiana. We're too early to know any track or intensity data with any confidence, but confidence is increasing regarding the development of a storm. It is prudent for locations from the coastal regions of Eastern Mexico all the way to Coastal Alabama to remain vigilant this weekend as forecast data becomes more certain regarding track and intensity. The more favorable tropical (hurricane) models, while still varied in location, have shown more run-to-run consistency for impacts across southeast Texas and southern Louisiana by Sunday into Monday.

The potential impacts of this system on our immediate weather next week remains unclear. We've made some adjustments to wind direction and probability with the assumption that most of the impacts will remain slightly east of our region. Additional changes will be possible early next week depending upon the exact track. At this point, most of our area will remain west of the tropical influence.

In the short term, the dominant mid-level ridge of high pressure is slowly flattening and has begun to migrate or expand eastward. This process eventually allows our daytime highs to slowly drop and opens the upper flow to become more conducive for a few storms.

Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV

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