Tracking Nicholas & Our Next Front

Gusty south winds will remain today and tomorrow with highs in the lower 90s. Fire spread conditions remain but will be offset by low-level moisture slowly increasing over the area along with a few storm mentions for the mid-week period. Tropical storm Nicholas is located along the Texas Gulf Coast region this morning and will have minimal direct impacts on our weather.

The mid-level ridge has flattened and weakened considerably as stronger westerly flow aloft remains north of the state and a developing tropical system will be located to the south. The squeeze play will be in effect with most of the tropical system remaining south and the stronger westerly flow aloft north. There will be a chance for some moisture associated with Nicholas to expand northward, influencing far southeastern OK and the ArkLaTex with some bands of showers and storms. At this point, this activity will remain too far south to impact most of our areas of concern, including the Tulsa metro.

Meanwhile, to our north, a disturbance in the upper flow will move across the central plains Tuesday into Wednesday helping to move a surface cold front southward into southern Kansas by late Tuesday afternoon and evening. This boundary could make a brief appearance across northern OK by early Wednesday morning before either becoming diffuse or lifting northward Wednesday afternoon or Thursday morning. We'll continue to keep a decent chance for a few storms near the metro during these periods, with higher chances across southeastern Kansas. 

Temperatures will continue to slowly decrease, with highs today and Tuesday expected in the lower 90s. Daytime temps Wednesday should stay in the mid to upper 80s coinciding with increasing clouds and chances for scattered storms across northern OK and southern Kansas. As the influence on our weather with this system ends, temps will slowly climb back into the lower to mid-90s for the end of the week with morning lows mostly in the upper 60s and lower 70s as some mid-level ridging returns across the state. Gusty south winds are likely to remain for the weekend.

Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog. 

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV

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