Summer Remains Before A Fall Front

Summerlike weather holds through the weekend before our next front nears the area early next week. After a pleasant morning, temperatures this afternoon are expected to rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s along with mostly sunny sky and south winds from 10 to 15 mph.

Some data continue to suggest that a broad trough of low pressure (part of the old Nicholas circulation) will develop out of the southern Louisiana region and move northward Friday into the weekend. These features could trigger a few showers and storms, but mostly across extreme southeastern OK or western Arkansas. I have elected to keep these pops off the big 7-day planner for now, as the expected number and coverage of activity should remain very low.

Meanwhile to the west, a mid-level ridge of high pressure will be the dominant feature for most of the state. This will bring us more summerlike weather with morning lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s along with afternoon highs mostly in the lower 90s. A front will be nearing the central Kansas region Friday night into Saturday morning before stalling. The presence of the above trough positioned to our southeast may bring northeast winds across the area for a while Saturday before gusty south winds return Sunday into Monday. This should bring a minor increase in low-level moisture across the far eastern sections of the state with minor heat index values in the mid to upper 90s.

Early next week, we continue to see consistent signals for a strong upper-level system to eject from the Pacific northwest, through the Rockies and into the central plains states Tuesday into Wednesday. This strong system will also shove a surface front southeast. The timing for this front and consequently precipitation chances will continue to change as the data attempt to center upon a consistent solution. This morning’s data points toward a slightly faster arrival, now early Tuesday morning with the front and has shifted the upper-level trough slightly more northward. We’ll make some adjustments in our forecast to account for these changes.

The airmass behind this front will be cooler, with the first taste of some fall-like weather arriving through the area. After highs Monday in the lower 90s with gusty south winds, north winds arrive Tuesday morning with a chance for a few storms. Temps will drop into the 60s with the frontal passage and then rebound into the lower 80s for the afternoon. Clouds should clear Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with many locations dropping into the mid-50s for Wednesday morning lows. Afternoon highs Wednesday will climb into the lower 80s. The data for the end of next week is completely out of phase. More on this later. 

If you’re heading to Norman this weekend for the Nebraska game, it will be warm. Kick-off temps will be in the upper 80s with the fourth quarter reaching the lower to mid-90s with gusty south winds.

Tulsa travels to Columbus for a 2:30 pm start at The Ohio State University. A weak boundary nearby could provide a small shower before the game, but it’s unlikely. Temps will remain in the 80s.

Oklahoma State travels to Boise, Idaho for an evening game at Boise State. Some pleasant football weather is expected with kick-off near the lower 70s with temps dropping into the 60s for the game. A weak system nearby may also support a passing shower, but this appears unlikely for the game. 

Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV

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