Additional Storm Chances Soon

We should be in a holding pattern for much of the day with only isolated to scattered shower chances. After the Thursday beneficial rains, the atmosphere is mostly stable now, even though a few showers or storms may develop in a few spots this morning. We'll more than likely remain dry for the midday to afternoon with highs reaching the upper 70s and lower 80s. A weak boundary located near I-44 to the south will remain stationary this morning before slowly lifting northwest later tonight as the last chuck of energy in this current pattern nears the state. This will eventually develop storms, including the threats of moderate to heavy rainfall. Southeastern and east-central OK may see afternoon storms before additional activity develops this evening. It’s a race between the Friday Night Football games and the onset of scattered storm activity at this point. You'll need to be prepared for some storms, but the higher coverage may arrive as the games are ending. Additionally, scattered storms will remain likely overnight into early Saturday morning to at least midday. 

Later tonight into Saturday morning, abundant low-level moisture will surge northward as the main upper-level trough begins ejecting across the central plains states by midday. Moderate mid-level winds from 40 to 50 knots will provide more than enough lift for storms, some strong to possible near severe storms early to midday Saturday as the surface front near I-44 begins moving east to southeast by afternoon. A mitigating factor for severe storms will be coinciding with the early morning time period which will limit surface instability. Nonetheless, a few strong to severe storms may be possible Saturday as storm activity with locally heavy rainfall develops and moves northeast. By midday to early afternoon, some breaks in the clouds may allow enough instability to develop as the cold front begins moving southeast with a few scattered storms on the front by Saturday evening. This chance remains very low. 

By early to late afternoon the upper air trough should be losing its influence over our immediate area as the cold front continues moving southeast while bringing drier and cooler weather across the state by Saturday evening and early Sunday morning. We’ll see northwest winds and decreasing sky with Sunday morning lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s and afternoon highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. This brings us to a highly unusual pattern next week. 

The upper trough that ejects this weekend will transit to the Midwest while phasing with a developing upper-level low that will be moving south. This new trough will become cut-off from the upper airflow. Most data support this low deepening while retrograding some for the early to the middle part of the week while the stronger belt of westerlies gets shoved well north, into southern Canada. If the low moves back more west than anticipated, this will bring clouds and some showers back into at least northeastern OK, but the current position in most of the data will keep the state in the sweet spot with sunshine, north winds, and pleasant fall weather. This pattern will support morning lows in the mid-50s and afternoon highs anywhere from the upper 70 to the lower 80s. 

Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV

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