Showers and storms will become more numerous through the day as a warm front lifts northward into the region.
The potential for some localized flooding is possible and parts of East-Central and southeastern OK are included in a flood watch for the day and evening. Highs this afternoon will reach the upper 50s and lower 60s across northern OK while moving into the mid-60s across the southern sections. While the threat of heavy rainfall is the main concern, a few strong to severe storms may be possible near the boundary later today through early evening. The system will exit the state later tonight bringing much colder and dry weather for the weekend.
The position of the retreating warm front will be key to the location of heavy showers and storms as the day progresses. This front is currently well south of the region but is expected to lift northward this morning into southeastern OK and eventually rest near or just south of the I-40 corridor. Showers and some thunder will gradually develop this morning across southern OK with a tendency for the active weather to migrate northward. By afternoon, a zone of scattered storms will be running along and slightly north of the boundary while the next upper-level impulse nears the central plains. A few strong to severe storms will also be possible today, more so later this afternoon near the warm front. The main threat appears to be hail and wind, but a low-end tornado threat cannot be ruled out near the warm front. This front will effectively stall for a few hours before moving southward late tonight as a strong surge of colder and drier air arrives. Once this occurs, rainfall will exit the state with much colder weather invading the state for the weekend. A surface ridge of high pressure is likely to center upon northeastern OK Saturday evening bringing some of the coldest temps of the fall-winter season to date. Valley locations will drop into the teens while the metro is likely to experience Sunday morning lows in the lower 20s. Temps will remain cool for the early part of next week before gradually warming into the 50s Tuesday and lower 60s for the end of the week. A quasi-closed low is expected to move across Texas Monday, but any shower activity should remain near or south of the Red River Valley. I'll not include any mention for showers across the northern sections but will keep very low chances for the Texoma region.
The outlook for Christmas has not changed. Warmer weather will arrive Friday, Christmas Eve before a strong cold front nears the state Christmas Weekend. Colder weather will follow this frontal passage which more than likely occurs sometime on Christmas Day. We could reach the upper 60s or even lower 70s midday before falling into the 40s with strong north winds by late afternoon and evening. Precipitation chances are not expected at this time for the Christmas Weekend.
Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.