Severe Weather Moves Into Green Country Overnight

A powerful storm system brings strong winds and fire danger issues near and west of Tulsa with a chance for severe storms near and east of the metro. Severe weather threats across extreme eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas would support significant severe weather, including all modes. The fire danger issues across the western and central part of the state will once again be highly impactful.  The system should exit our area pre-dawn Wednesday with cooler and pleasant conditions through the day.  

A capping inversion should limit or even suppress most thunderstorm activity this afternoon across the eastern third of the state. There may be one or two isolated and elevated storms that could develop but the probability remains low. A more likely scenario develops this evening and overnight with the dry line positioned near the Tulsa metro and a surface cold front nearing from the northwest. Strong winds aloft will be moving from northern OK into the central plains and storms will attempt to develop along the front to the north and the dry line near and east tonight with and overnight. Storm development is highly conditional for eastern OK with much higher threats in Arkansas. But any discrete cells that do develop ahead of the dryline would have a greater likelihood of significant severe weather, including large hail, damaging winds, and the possibility of a tornado. The Tulsa metro should be on the starting line for this system with a relatively low chance for storms with extreme southeastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas in a moderate risk of severe weather and higher chances for storms. A moderate risk is the 2nd highest awareness of severe weather potential. Unfortunately, most of the potential for severe storms will be overnight. If you reside across the far eastern third of the state, more so into western Arkansas, please make sure you have ways of receiving warnings that may be issued overnight. Most modern cell phones already have the capability of alerting for severe weather and public emergencies. IOS and Android systems have a slightly different set-up, but both mostly involve going to your settings and searching for notifications. Look for emergency and public safety alerts. Toggle these into the on position. We always encourage you to have redundancy. You're welcome to download the NewsOn6 weather application and follow the prompts for delivering watches and warnings to your phone. Finally, and probably most notably, a NOAA weather radio system is a great way to stay informed and will also alert you anytime watches and warnings are issued for your area. These radios typically require configuration for your local area, so please take the time to ensure your settings seem correct. There are numerous on-line tutorials for all these delivery systems.  

Another major issue with this system will be the potential for more significant fire danger issues along and northwest of I-44 this afternoon and early evening. Some data bring the dry line into the metro this afternoon before retreating northwest a few hours tonight. Red Flag warnings will be posted in most of the areas west of Tulsa all the way to Texas. Even with a chance for a few storms near Tulsa, the Tulsa metro will also be included in a fire weather watch. It's unlikely the dry line would pass the metro into far eastern OK, but locations west of Tulsa will be a higher likelihood for fire weather concerns. 

Strong south winds from 25 to 60 mph will again be likely across western and central Oklahoma, with wind speeds from 25 to 50 mph near Tulsa. A wind advisory will be underway today near and west of the Tulsa metro. Highs will reach the mid and upper 80s west of Tulsa and the lower 80s across the eastern third of the state. Once the front passes the area pre-dawn Wednesday, cooler and stable air returns for the remainder of the week. A relatively weak system will be near the state late Sunday evening into early Monday bringing a low-end chance of a few showers.  

Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Please remain aware of your weather surroundings for the next 24 hours as this powerful storm system moves across the state.