Wet & Chilly Pattern Underway

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TULSA, Okla. - Showers and storms return to Green Country on Tuesday.

Here are the details from News On 6 Meteorologist Alan Crone:

Widespread rainfall with embedded thunderstorms will be likely over the next 48 hours as a storm system influences the southern and central plains. Temperatures during this time will remain well below seasonal averages, with high temperatures this afternoon only in the lower to mid-50s. Gusty southeast winds at 15 to 25 mph will contribute to a rather blustery afternoon. While our precipitation chances remain in the likely category, this does not mean rain will fall every minute of every hour. But we do anticipate healthy opportunities for showers and storms, including the chance for some pockets of moderate to locally heavy rainfall in some locations. The overall instability across northeastern Oklahoma is expected to remain low. This means severe weather threats should be mostly confined to far southern Oklahoma and the north central Texas region today. A few thunderstorms Wednesday could produce marginally severe hail, especially across South Central Oklahoma along the red River valley. The main storm system should exit the area late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning, but a few leftover showers will exist early to mid-day Thursday. The upper airflow will transition from the northwest Thursday and bring yet another fast-moving system across the area Friday afternoon and evening. This surface cold front will attempt to trigger a few showers and storms followed by the return of gusting Northwest winds and falling temperatures Friday evening. Saturday presents differing data which could change the existing forecast. At this point, we’ll keep a low chance for showers Saturday morning along with gusting north winds and highs in the upper 50s, with improving conditions Sunday as sunshine and lighter wind returns. Sunday morning Lowe’s will start near 40 with afternoon highs reaching the upper 60s and lower 70s. The forecast for Saturday may still undergo significant changes.

The main upper-level trough remains well west of the state this morning. But waves of instability will move from the west to east this morning and then again late tonight until Wednesday morning. A surface area of low pressure is expected to develop across the Red River Valley late tonight and early tomorrow. A developing warm front, positioned from west to east, will separate warm and unstable air near and south of this boundary. The key to more significant severe weather Wednesday will reside near and south of this boundary. At this point, most data suggest the warm sector remains along the Red River Valley and North Central Texas. Any migration northward of this boundary could increase the severe threats across southern Oklahoma for part of Wednesday. More northward, elevated instability is likely along the I-40 Corridor region Wednesday. This will support the possibility of a few storms producing hail Wednesday afternoon or early evening near and south of the I-40 corridor. A blend of model data suggests rainfall amounts from one to 3 inches will be likely with this system, with some localized amounts between 3 and 4 inches of rain. The persisting drought across part of Northern Oklahoma will preclude any flood watch statements or products at this time.

Temperatures will remain below the seasonal average for the rest of the week.

Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV