Potential For Flooding Across NE Oklahoma
By News On 6 meteorologist Alan Crone
TULSA, OK -- The active weather pattern continues with additional showers and storms developing across northern OK. A flash flood watch remains in effect through the evening hours as heavy rainfall is possible in some locations. Scattered thunderstorms may also produce some severe weather later this afternoon and early evening as another system approaches from the northwest.
If your trash can is missing this morning in southern Tulsa or Wagoner counties, check your neighbor's yard. Strong to high winds associated with a decaying area of rain early this morning prompted high wind warnings for an hour near the metro. Winds of 40 mph were common and some gusts over 50 would have been possible. We have received reports of some minor wind damage associated with this area of early morning rain. These winds were not produced by severe thunderstorms in the technical sense, but by pressure differences associated with the decaying area of rain.
A small area of spin or vorticity will be present in the area today and additional thunderstorms will be likely. These will be scattered and generally near Tulsa. Moderate to heavy rainfall will be common and low water crossings, streams, and creeks may begin to flood later this afternoon.
The exact scenario for later this afternoon is not clear due to the morning activity. But several boundaries will be near northeastern and central OK. Combined with abundant low level moisture, additional thunderstorms seem likely just about anywhere this afternoon as temperatures attempt to climb into the mid 70s.
A complex of storms may form across northern Kansas and move southeast with time later tonight. This could move into northeastern Ok overnight. The confidence on this scenario is low.
Additionally a strong front to our north may be slightly ahead of schedule and could bring a chance of strong to severe storms into the northeastern Ok area later tonight or early tomorrow. We'll keep a 40% chance of showers or storms in the forecast to account for both of these scenarios.
The air mass behind the front appears to be relatively cool. I'm leaning toward lowering the high temps for the next few days. At this point, I continue to keep Friday into the lower 70s, but we may top out around 68 with a northeast wind by the afternoon. Some storms Friday could be severe with hail the main issue, but model depicts mainly a post frontal precipitation event. If so, this may limit our potential to hail and gusty winds. I have this probability around 50%.
The front will be sliding southward Friday night and should be south of our areas for the entire weekend. Concurrently another disturbance in the upper levels will be approaching from the southwest. This would have the influence of developing rain with some embedded thunderstorms activity both Saturday and Sunday across northern OK. We have increased the probability to 70% for both days and lowered the highs into the lower and mid 60s. The exact confidence regarding the weekend remains a little iffy.