Tracking Two Systems
We're tracking two systems for the week and the 2nd one may bring a decent chance of rain to the region before much colder air arrives Friday into Christmas and the weekend.
At this point, the threat for wintry precipitation is not zero, but remains rather very low for the state. Higher chances will be likely for the central plains. Morning lows Christmas Day will be in the lower 20s with afternoon highs in the upper 30s or lower 40s.
A surface area of low pressure will deepen today to the west allowing gusty south wind to develop across the southern plains. The result will be increasing fire danger and relatively warmer air with highs nearing 60 in Tulsa. Locations west of the area may report temperatures in the upper 60s or lower 70s this afternoon as a dry line passes the region. We expect mostly cloudy conditions with a few sun breaks this afternoon.
The actual cold front will slide across the region pre-dawn tomorrow bringing cooler but not excessively colder air back to the region for a few days. Afternoon highs Tuesday and Wednesday will remain the upper 40s and lower 50s with morning lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
Thursday, as the upper level system approaches from the west, another surface low will develop to the west allowing for gusty south winds and temperatures moving into the lower 50s Thursday. Thursday evening as low level moisture approaches, some showers or even thunderstorms may develop in advance of the main system that should arrive Friday morning. The GFS data is the fastest with the system and the EURO is the slowest. Regardless, we think most of the cold air will not arrive until most of the precipitation is east of the state.
Temperatures Friday may start in the lower 40s and fall into the mid 30s Friday afternoon with gusty north wind. You'll find that we have inverted the temperatures on the 7 day planner to account for this scenario.
EURO data would support the cold air remaining into the weekend with morning lows in the upper teens and lower 20s with highs around 40.
The upper air pattern late next week into the early portion of next week would be supportive to bring another system into the southern plains around Tuesday or Wednesday. Stay tuned.