Warming By Friday
Expect mostly sunny conditions this morning with a few clouds arriving this afternoon as another front crosses the area. Highs this afternoon will move into the lower and mid 40s with south winds shifting to the north by late afternoon or early evening. We'll be tracking a few more systems this week but the lack of moisture will keep the mention of precipitation extremely low and basically out of the forecast.
The Sunday system brought cold air back to the region, but thankfully no significant precipitation. Some light drizzle and shower activity was present across southern OK yesterday in advance of the system, and a few flurries may have been spotted in a few spots across Northern OK. Earlier last week, we had a 50 chance of either drizzle of snow showers for Sunday, but we had lowered our chances from 50% Wednesday to 30% by Friday and to 20% by Saturday. A 20% chance of drizzle of light snow flurries indicates a chance still exist for the precipitation, but obviously not a very high likelihood. I have always struggled with conveying the likelihood of an event in terms of probability or chance. Most folks just want to know if it's going to rain or not but it's rarely that easy. Until then, we'll struggle with conveying confidence or the lack thereof regarding the chance or probability of an event occurring in your area. That's enough to make my head hurt. How about yours?
The upper air flow will remain from the northwest for the next few days. This means a series of fast moving "waves" will traverse the area, but the lack of low- and mid-level moisture will keep the precipitation chances to only a mention for a flurry or two as these waves move into the region.
The first upper level system will arrive late tonight into Tuesday and the second will move into the area Thursday. These upper level systems will have a surface reflection in the form of weak cold fronts with very little in the way of major day to day variations of temperature.
A surface front will move across the state this afternoon or early evening bringing north winds and some cloud cover back to the region. This front should enter the northern OK area near Tulsa between 5pm and 7pm.
The temperatures will actually be warming by the end of the week with readings Friday approaching the mid 50s with southwest winds increasing at 10 to 20 mph.
Another chunk of arctic air will more than likely break loose and move southward by Saturday or Sunday bringing an abrupt end to the above normal temperatures expected Friday. This morning's data however is now delaying the onset of the truly cold arctic air until Monday or Tuesday.
The EURO data would suggest Saturday's highs in the 50s and Sunday in the 40s before turning colder. This is completely different front yesterdays runs and due to the inconsistency in the data, I have elected to bring Saturday's highs to 40 and keep Sunday's highs at 38. This would remain somewhat consistent with our previous forecast from the Sunday. We'll need to see more consistency in the medium range data before delaying the onset of the cold air until Tuesday. Regardless, it appears the warmer air we will see Friday will be short lived.