We expect mostly cloudy, windy, and warm temperatures today with highs near 80. Storm chances will be increasing tomorrow with storms likely for eastern OK. Some severe storms are possible.
The warm front is moving northward into southern Kansas this morning and storm chances will remain near the boundary for the next few hours across southeastern Kansas. . Later this afternoon the next chance for storm formation will occur off the dry line across western and central OK. These storms may also be severe with all modes of severe weather possible. The timing for possible initiation is around 3pm. NSSL 4k WRF data and other data is supporting a high chance of showers and storms tomorrow, including the morning hours, across eastern sections of the state. Despite the early start time, there may be a few strong to severe storms tomorrow morning. The overcast conditions will limit surface instabilities across the eastern region, but the increase of low level moisture will also help with thunderstorm formation.
At this point, we have to prepare for severe storms based on pattern recognition and not necessary the computer model output. This means tomorrows storms may possibly be severe.
We may have some Saturday morning left over's before a few additional Saturday afternoon storms fire across far eastern OK as temperatures move into the mid 80s. This forecast will also hold true for Sunday and Monday, but higher storm chances will occur Tuesday and Wednesday of next week as another major upper level system draws closer to the region.
The extended data is suggesting a frontal passage is possible by next Thursday with northwest winds and drier air for the end of next week. This would knock our temps down with morning lows next Thursday in the 50s and highs in the 70s.
I know a lot of folks are trying to make plans for the huge Memorial Day-Weekend. I would plan for a slight chance of isolated storms and highs in the 80s at this point. More to follow soon.
Extended GFS ensemble data suggest a mid level ridge is possible across Texas by the later part of the first week in June. If this is correct, the heat will be building into the southern plains in about 3 weeks with limited thunderstorm chances. Stay tuned.