Thunderstorms will be likely today, some severe, with highs in the upper 70s near 80.
Due to ongoing storms in the state, I will be brief with the morning discussion. This discussion is being posted at 3:20AM.
We're tracking a squall line of this morning across southwestern and west central OK. Some severe wind gusts and large hail will be possible as this mesocale convective complex feeds off a strong low level jet. This MCS may roll across the southern third of the state with additional storms possible on the north end of the line across northeastern OK by early morning. Additional scattered storms will be possible today, just about anywhere at anytime across the eastern part of the state. Some of these will also have the potential to be near severe with gusty wind and hail potential. Around midday to early afternoon, we expect a brief lull in the storm action as additional storms will attempt to form off the dry line which will be located to our west across central OK. These "dry line storms" will have the highest severe weather potential by late Friday afternoon and early Friday evening if the atmosphere can recover from the early morning storms. These storms will move across the eastern part of the state by late Friday night and early Saturday morning giving us a break for most of Saturday.
Sunday into Monday another slight chance of showers and storms will exist as low level moisture and strong south wind will remain entrenched across the area.
Another major upper level trough will be moving near the southern plains by Tuesday and Wednesday increasing the storm potential, some of which will also be strong to severe.
This morning's data brings a wind shift-frontal passage into the area about a day faster than yesterdays runs. This would mean slightly cooler air Wednesday with afternoon winds from the northwest. I will not make any adjustments to the 7 day planner at this point, but I did lower Thursday's readings into the 70s for afternoon highs.
As stated yesterday, the extended ensemble data points toward a mid level ridge by the end of the first week of June which would mean decreasing storm chances and increasing heat.
Before this takes place, the active weather pattern will remain for the next 2 to 3 weeks.