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100% Chance of Rain - Somewhere in Eastern Oklahoma!

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Total precipitation map for the first half of the year. Total precipitation map for the first half of the year.
Map of percentage of normal precipitation. Map of percentage of normal precipitation.

We are halfway through the year now and notice the total precipitation map on the right from the OK Mesonet. Many of the western counties have received less than 5" so far this year. The second map on the right shows the percentage of normal precipitation and only a few counties in the far NE corner are at or above normal for the year. No wonder we are in such a serious drought situation.

So, what are the chances for some rain? Well, as has been the case for the last several days now, the chances that it will rain are 100%. Problem is that it will not rain everywhere and the areal coverage is expected to be no more than 20%, if that. That means that the chances of any one location receiving measurable rainfall is on the order of 20% for today and again on Independence Day. And, as has been the case for the last few days, the daytime heating is largely contributing to what showers/storms do form so the late afternoon into the early nighttime hours will be the best times to catch a cooling shower.

Also, the slow movement of those storms that do pop up can lead to localized heavy rainfall amounts. In addition, the relatively drier air near the surface will lead to the potential for damaging wind gusts as these storms collapse so a few storms may briefly reach severe limits.

Temperatures will continue to run well above normal with triple digits common again today. Fortunately, relative humidity levels will be dropping into the 20% range during the heat of the day so the heat index will be nearly the same as the air temperature and not a major factor. However, light SE winds will not provide much of a cooling breeze either.

Independence Day is expected to have a weakness in the dominant ridge aloft which should allow for a little more cloud cover and at least a 20% chance of showers/storms. This combination just might be enough to keep us below triple digits during the day, but not by much. Light SE winds are also expected for much of the day, except of course gusty winds near those storms that do pop up.

After that, another weakness in the ridge aloft will hopefully allow for at least a slight chance of showers/storms and keep us below triple digits for the Thu/Fri time frame. Other than that, there will be a chance of a few isolated storms on just about any given day for the foreseeable future and close to triple digit heat on just about any given day as well.

As my brother-in-law who is a farmer always says: "It will rain one of these days." And, indeed it will. In the meantime, stay cool, stay tuned, and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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