We're looking at some very mild and nice weather today with highs expected in the upper 70s or the lower 80s. Plenty of sunshine will be likely with only a few high clouds along with light and variable winds for the afternoon.
The upper level pattern features the major upper level low still centered near the Midwest. This feature has been cut off from the flow for the past 3 days, but will be slowly moving northeast today and tomorrow. A mid level ridge of high pressure centered over the desert southwest will begin migrating eastward, and will be positioned over the southern plains by Wednesday and Thursday bringing unseasonably warm air back to the region in the form of upper 80s and lower 90s area wide. A cold front will be approaching the region around Thursday ( NAM) or Friday ( GFS-EURO) allowing for seasonably cool air to move back across the state. The lack of significant low level moisture will prohibit any chance of widespread rain or storms, so our forecast will keep the entire 7 day period void of precipitation for this update cycle. There's always a chance we'll re-evaluate as new data arrives, but the odds remain rather low for any major changes through the period.
The long range data supports the development of a major upper air pattern change starting around October 5th. This would create a trough across the west bringing some active weather back to the region from October 5th through the 10th. The long range data is notorious for flipping, but I'll continue to post updates as we draw closer to the possibility.
One item of interest continues to be the Pacific storm (Hillary) that is located about 440 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja, California. The observational data would support the system becoming absorbed into the upper air flow and moving across the southwest or the desert southwest late next weekend. No model brings the remnants directly across the southern plains, including Oklahoma. We'll keep watching this scenario with interest, but I think this would fall into a wish-cast than anything concrete. We continue to struggle with a significant deficit in the rainfall category. The major and historic drought shows no signs of breaking within the next month.
So enjoy the weather today and tomorrow. The dry air will allow for wonderfully crisp morning temperatures.
Facebook and Twitter:
We're still trying to convince you to be our friend on facebook and to follow us on twitter.
I'm in the beginning stages of possibly uploading a video weather briefing on my facebook on occasion. This may be very brief, or it could end up being a couple of minutes. I may discuss some very minor issues in the weather, or I may highlight differences in the GFS vs. the EURO. I still have not decided exactly the format regarding content, but I'm almost 90% certain that I will begin posting a video update sooner and not later.
So, be sure and "like me" on facebook if you want to partake of this "social media" craze.
Thanks for reading the weather-blog-discussion.
As always, errors in the forecast are inevitable. I don't want them to happen, but the nature of the weather business leads to errors at times. I apologize for these errors now and in the future. I'm consistently reminded that politicians, weather forecasters, and baseball players all tend to swing for the fences on a daily basis. I'm too old to become a baseball player; I'm probably too gullible to become a politician, so by default I'm yours for a while longer.