Just like anybody, I love nice stretches of weather. However, it's harder to enjoy at the expense of the drought conditions that continue to worsen in Oklahoma. I have to remind myself I live in Oklahoma, not Phoenix, with every passing day without a passing cloud in the sky.
So that begs the question: where's the rain? After all, October is usually one of the wettest months in Tulsa with an average rainfall of nearly 4 inches. At this moment, an impressively large area of high pressure is sitting over the central United States. It continues to budge to the east each day as a deep trough moves into the West Coast. That trough brings the hope of rain as it nears the Plains States late this week. This is great news for the most drought-stricken regions of the southern Plains.
However, our confidence in rain is waning each day as the models indicate the upper-level low getting shunted to the north before it makes real inroads into eastern Oklahoma. Folks in the western half of the state may be dealing with a deluge of rain this weekend, but drops of rain may be hard to come by here in Green (or increasingly-brown) Country. There are still several days for this scenario to change, but right now it looks like a feast or famine event. That is wonderful news for western Oklahoma. Some models indicate several inches of rain falling within a day or two. The map above shows the 5-day prediction of rain from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.
On the bright side, fair-goers may enjoy another pleasant weekend as the Tulsa State Fair wraps up! Keep an eye on our forecast throughout the week though. We still have a slight chance of rain in the forecast.
One final note: with the dry conditions along with an uptick in the temperatures and wind speed, fire danger will be high. Think twice before starting a fire outdoors this week!
Be sure to follow me on Twitter: @GroganontheGO and "like" me on Facebook. Just search, "Meteorologist Mike Grogan!"
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