Unsettled Weather Pattern
The next several days will be much more unsettled with widespread rainfall just west of us today and Sunday and a better chance for the eastern part of the state as we go into Sunday night and Monday. There will also be at least a chance for some additional showers/storms up through Wednesday before the pattern changes again in time for the coming weekend.
The first map on the right shows the estimated QPF(Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) valid through this coming Wednesday. If it verifies then the drought stricken western sections of our state and adjacent states stand to receive some significant rainfall. In fact, if you compare that with the second map on the right which shows the total precipitation received for 2011, you can see that they may get more rainfall over the next few days than they have received so far this year!
That they need the rain is beyond question; problem is that they don't need it all at once as that could result in flooding with little of the rainfall having a chance to soak in. It looks like there will be several rounds of showers/storms affecting them over the next few days so hopefully, they will get a good soaking.
As for our chances, the system responsible for the rain to the west will be brushing by our part of the state by Sunday night and into the day Monday. That will be our best chance of showers and storms and it appears that some additional energy aloft will be passing overhead through Tuesday and Wednesday keeping us with a least a chance of additional showers and storms. A stronger cool front should be pushing through the state late Wed or that night bringing clear skies and cooler conditions for the latter part of the week and the coming weekend.
In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.