Cold Today, Warmer Sunday

Notice the statewide high temperature map on Friday to the right.  Quite a contrast from N to S and that colder air has penetrated into the more southern counties to start the day today.  That shallow, cold air will dominate through the day today so even though we will have lots of sunshine, temperatures will struggle to get into the low-mid 40s this afternoon.  

Temperatures tonight are a tough call since we will be so cool all day long and the air is so dry, we should cool off rather quickly with sunset.  But, our winds will be quickly returning to a S or SE direction and increasing to 10-15 mph with some higher gusts by morning.  That should keep temperatures from dropping below the freezing mark early tonight and then we should even start seeing a bit of a rise towards morning.  Also, clouds should be on the increase during the overnight hours which will also contribute to holding temperatures up.

Sunday will be another of those enhanced fire danger days with strong southerly winds of 15-30 and possibly some gusts to near 40 for much of the day shifting to gusty NW winds late in the day.  That shift in the winds will herald the arrival of yet another cool front, but it looks like it will be arriving before the deeper, better moisture can arrive.  So, only about a 10% chance of rain is now anticipated and for the more eastern counties at that.  We will see more cloud cover on Sunday, but temperatures should still make it into the lower 60s before the front arrives.

This next front does not have much cold air to work with so Monday should still see temperatures milder than normal for this time of year along with mostly sunny skies and a quick return to SE winds. 

After that, the trusty crystal ball does not paint a very clear picture for the rest of the week.  One set of guidance would suggest another system that would bring a good chance of rain for Tuesday night and Wednesday while another set of guidance keeps most of the rain further south with only a slight chance of rain for most of us.  Given the way things have been going so far this winter, it would seem that the drier, milder guidance is the way to go so am going with only with a possibility of a few showers for the Tue night and Wed time frames.  Keep in mind, that is certainly subject to change as is the rest of the week as the same issues continue right on through Friday.  So, I am leaning on the drier, milder side of guidance until I see a good reason to change and so far this winter, the milder and drier solutions have generally verified better.

As far as when will we see a significant cold air intrusion and the potential for a real deal winter weather event, we keep seeing hints of something along those lines in the ten day to two week time frame, but so far none of those hints has panned out.  So, until we see something more definitive, we will likely continue to have these periodic fronts passing through without much in the way of precipitation or cold air to work with. 

In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates. 

Dick Faurot