I'm running slightly behind inter-office schedule this morning and this will require me to keep the discussion-blog post on the short side today.
A moderate risk of severe weather has been posted by the SPC for Central and Eastern Kansas. A slight risk will be posted for extreme northern OK for later tonight.
We're looking at another windy and warm afternoon with highs in the mid-80s. There will be a slight chance of showers and storms today, even this morning, but these would be elevated in nature and non-severe. The chance of an early morning to mid-morning shower remains very low but not impossible. Later today a dry line will be moving into central OK with a strong upper level system moving into southwestern Kansas. We expect the layer of warm air aloft (the CAP) to suppress most if not all thunderstorm activity this afternoon near the vicinity of the dry line. Thunderstorms will be likely to form across central Kansas and move east-southeast with time and could impact extreme southern Kansas and extreme northeastern OK late tonight into pre-dawn Saturday morning. There will be a window for super cell structures this afternoon and tonight across the Kansas vicinity with large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes possible. The cold front will be sliding into the northern OK area around 1am to 3am and a narrow line of showers or storms may form near or slightly behind the boundary through the early Saturday morning hours. In summary, the window for severe storms tonight will exist from roughly 7pm through 3am tomorrow morning and mainly across extreme northern OK into southern Kansas.
Temperatures Saturday should drop closer to seasonal averages with highs in the mid or upper 70s along with northeast winds. Some showers and storms will be likely Saturday across the far southern third of the state, but only a slight chance of storms will be carried for the northern third of state, including the Tulsa area.
Model data is now offering a little more in the way of precipitation chances for Sunday, more so across the western part of the state, and we've increased the Sunday pop to a 50-50 shot. It's interesting to note that model data earlier this week offered highs in the upper 60s Saturday and the lower 60s Sunday. The last 3 days of data suggested much warmer air with highs in the upper to mid-70s. If the showers or storms indeed cover a large area Sunday, we'll end up in the upper 60s. Go figure!
Expect a return to the lower or mid 80s by the middle to end of next week, but the upper air flow will keep a slight chance of showers or storms in our forecast almost every day.