Storms, Some Possibly Severe, Through Monday.
Could be a long night tonight as a severe thunderstorm watch has been issued which goes until 2AM for portions of OK. Also, all the short range guidance, including the convection allowing products, suggest a more widespread area of showers and storms will be developing tonight and continuing through the morning hours of Sunday. Localized damaging wind gusts and hail the size of quarters or larger will be the primary severe weather threats.
The locations most likely to be affected will be along and NW of the I-44 corridor. That is also the most likely location to receive the most rainfall and rainfall totals may exceed 3-4" by the time it all comes to an end Monday night. The reason for that is a weak frontal boundary which has stalled out basically just NW of the I-44 corridor. The OK Mesonet map on the right is showing the winds as of late this afternoon and clearly shows the location of the nearly stationary front.
For the overnight hours, showers and storms are expected to become widespread along and behind that boundary and the rain cooled air should keep it pretty much in place. As we go through the day Sunday, the showers and storms will be dissipating which should allow the boundary to become diffuse or move further northward as a warm front. In any event, the southerly winds will keep us from cooling off much tonight with lows at least 10 degrees above normal and our daytime highs will be well into the 70s if not near 80.
The upper air pattern will have another couple of disturbances move across the state for Sunday night into the day Monday and again Monday night into the day Tuesday. Thus, we will have a rather unsettled period through Monday night with a good chance of showers and storms, some of which could become severe on any given day.
By Tuesday afternoon, things should start to settle down and the rest of the week looks to be very warm and humid for this time of year. The pattern aloft will be less supportive of showers or storms and the lack of a surface focus should keep our rain chances to only 10% or less on any given day. Typically, we do not put a chance on the forecast chart if it is less than 20%, as any showers or storms in those situations will be extremely isolated. Also, really hate to have a rain chance on every day knowing the chances are minimal.
So, the latter part of the week going into the coming weekend will be very warm and very humid for this time of year with lows in the 60s and highs in the 80s and only minimal chances of a shower or storm.
In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.