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Friday Morning Update

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Expect partly sunny, muggy, and windy conditions will continue with highs near 90.

Welcome to the weekend.  Or almost the weekend!

We expect another muggy, windy, and warm day across the state with south winds in the 15 to 30 mph range as temperatures move to near 90.  A few storms will be possible today across North Texas and part of southern OK and one or two may migrate into Eastern OK before falling apart late tonight.

The weekend will also feature temperatures well above the seasonal average with morning lows in the lower 70s and highs in the lower 90s Saturday and the upper 80s Sunday.  A cold front will arrive Sunday evening bringing a round of storms to part of the area followed by seasonal air early next week.  

GFS- and EURO data support the boundary arriving around 10pm Sunday night for the Tulsa metro, but the RAW NAM indicates the boundary could arrive around 3pm to 5pm Sunday afternoon.  I'm taking the later fropa for this forecast cycle.  The layer of warm air aloft may also be present for most of the Sunday time period, and we may see more of a post frontal storm opportunity for Sunday evening across far Northeastern OK, but a few may still be severe.  If we do see pre-frontal storms in the warm sector, very large hail and damaging wind would be possible with any severe storm.

Both sets of long range data support the boundary moving southward out of our area with cooler and drier air filtering into the state early next week.  There will remain a slight chance for some showers or storms across far southern OK Monday afternoon before the focus moves more southward.

A few days ago the pattern in the model data appeared very active for next week with the boundary hanging up in the southern part of the state.  But if the solutions are correct, we'll be in super great shape until late next week when a strong southern stream system approaches from the southwestern U.S.

Temperatures yesterday hit 90 in the Tulsa area.  The normal high is 76 with a normal low of 56.

Records today include a 96 from 1920 and a record low of 36 from 1954 and 1907.

 

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