A storm complex is located across southwestern OK this morning and will stay to the southwest-south of the Tulsa metro. Later today a slight chance of isolated storms will remain for part of NE OK including a slight chance for Tulsa.
We have a difficult forecast today due to the ongoing MCS across southwestern OK and part of Northwest Texas. This complex of thunderstorm activity is slowly moving east to southeast early this morning with a few scattered storms attempting to develop across northwestern and central OK. This system appears to have developed a MCV or a convectively induced area of vorticity that may survive for several hours as it moves east to southeast today. The usual reliable NSSL 4K WRF does not capture this feature and consequently weakens the system at it moves eastward this morning. The 04 HRRR does seem to capture the MCV and continues this feature east- and southeast into the early afternoon as it moves into southeastern OK, mainly along and south of I-40. The NAM has flipped again and is now indicating a decent area of QPF for the northeastern part of the state this afternoon as the warm moist air currently south begins to move northward with southerly surface winds. Needless to say, we have our work cut out for us today with plenty of room for a forecast bust in both precipitation and temperature. I'll keep a slight chance for isolated storms in Tulsa, with a slightly higher chance for areas along and south of I-40 just incase the MCV survives through midday.
Thursday the upper air flow will still support another fast moving but weak wave in the flow that could produce a few storms. We've had this probability in the forecast for subsequent cycles and I'll continue to keep the chance for a few storms in the Thursday time period.
Friday into the weekend a mid level ridge will probably be strong enough to limit most organized activity but a few late afternoon isolated storms will be possible across far eastern OK and western Arkansas. I'll just make mention of these storms on air today and not place a pop on the big map.
The data suggests a surface boundary will slide into the central plains by Tuesday before stalling across extreme northern OK and retreating northward Wednesday or Thursday. We'll keep a slight chance of showers or storms in the running for Tuesday, but this could easily be pushed back to Wednesday.
Temperatures for the next few days may be slightly warmer than advertised as this has been the case for the past few days. Some of the RAW model output indicates readings may move into the mid 90s Friday, but I'll stick with a high around 93 Friday through the weekend with morning lows in the lower 70s.
The pressure gradient should increase over part of the 7 day planner period, especially Monday when EURO gradients would indicate very strong south winds ahead of the boundary.