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Hot, Humid, Slight Chance of Storms.

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Only a few showers/storms formed during the overnight hours and those pretty much kept themselves in KS/MO. By this afternoon, we will have another chance of showers/storms developing but the areal coverage is only expected to be on the order of 20% or so. However, those few storms that do form will be moving rather slowly so if you are under one there will be some brief but locally very heavy rainfall. Small hail and gusty winds will also accompany any storms that can get going.

The problem is a layer of relatively warm, dry air aloft which acts as a lid to storm formation. Without any sort of surface boundary to provide a low level focus for the winds to converge on, it is difficult for just the daytime heating to provide enough energy to penetrate that capping inversion. So, any storms will be few and far between, but those few will be locally quite strong for a short period of time.

During the coming week, even fewer showers/storms are expected as the capping inversion aloft is anticipated to be even stronger for at least the next few days. We will also have gusty southerly surface winds which will at least provide some pretty good ventilation during the day. Look for those winds to be on the order of 15-25+ for Mon & Tue, but they should begin to back off somewhat later in the week. There are indications of a weakening frontal boundary dropping into KS Thursday and it may make it far as the OK/KS state line. If so, that will provide a focus for showers/storms for the more northern counties during that time frame. We can only hope it drops further southward to bring some rains elsewhere, but right now that does not appear very likely.

So, with southerly winds and very few, if any, cooling showers/storms, the coming week looks to be hot and humid with above normal temperatures each day. According to the calendar, Summer officially arrives on Wednesday so the calendar will be catching up with what we are already experiencing. The main limitation on the daily temperature range will be the presence or absence of clouds. We expect enough cloud cover for much of today for afternoon highs near 90. More sunshine and highs in the lower 90s are expected for Mon/Tue. After that, the clouds become the wild card again and daytime highs each day should hang around the 90 degree mark. Of course, the humidity will make it feel warmer with heat index values generally another 5 degrees or so above the air temperatures.

The southerly winds and low level moisture will also keep our nights warmer than normal with overnight lows generally in the lower 70s for the coming week as well.

As we head into the coming weekend and that following week, the guidance is conflicting. Ridging aloft is expected to become more dominant, but there are also indications of a tropical system in the western Gulf of Mexico. The interaction, strength, and location of these systems will determine if we have a chance of rain by then or if temperatures will be soaring. So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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