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Good Chance of Rain, Break in the Heat.

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Although the shower/storm activity yesterday was rather spotty, at least some lucky folks picked up some decent rainfall as the map on the right, courtesy of the OK Mesonet, shows. Just a little further east, Fayetteville, Ark had a 1.7" soaking which was a record for that date. More of the same is expected for today with scattered showers/storms developing during the course of the day and some of them will be capable of dropping some locally heavy rainfall in a short period of time. As was also the case yesterday, a few of those storms will produce some locally very strong and possibly damaging winds.

As I have been saying all along though, don't get your hopes up too high as not everyone will get a good soaking. As mentioned before, the chances that it will rain somewhere in the forecast area today and on Monday are 100%. But, as I have also been saying the chances of any one location receiving measurable rainfall are much less than that. Currently the areal coverage looks to be on the order of 40% today and 50% on Monday with a few showers/storms possibly lingering into Tuesday for the more southern counties. Those are the best chances we have had in quite some time though.

Although this will not be a drought breaker with respect to the rainfall, at least the pattern for the rest of the week and quite possibly into the following week does not suggest we will be heading back into triple digit territory with respect to temperatures anytime soon. So, even those of us who do not get a good rain out of this will at least get a break in the recent heat wave. Partly cloudy to at times mostly cloudy skies and the development of scattered showers/storms during the day today should combine to keep us below triple digits for an afternoon high.

After that, a cool front will be slowly pushing southward across the state later tonight and on Monday and that will also bring a break in temperatures along with a good chance of showers/storms. The more E and NE winds that will prevail from Mon-Thu will keep our daytime highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s and our overnight lows will be near 70. Sounds pretty good compared to how June ended and how July has been up to this point.

After Monday, only isolated showers or storms are expected at best and those primarily for the extreme southern counties where the frontal boundary will be stalling out. By the coming weekend, a return to southerly winds will warm things up a bit, but there will be more residual moisture and therefore higher humidity levels. Thus, hot and humid but not the extreme, triple digit heat that characterized nearly all of July last year. In fact, if the longer range guidance is to be believed, and at this time of year that is always taking a chance, then the pattern going into the following week would also suggest near normal temperatures and the possibility of a few showers or storms on any given day. At least, the current trends do not suggest the dominant upper level ridge that brought the heat at the end of June and the first part of July will be re-asserting itself over the state.

So, stay cool, stay tuned, and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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