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Warming Trend This Week.

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After a cold start this morning, temperatures have rebounded nicely so far this afternoon as the map on the right shows, courtesy of the OK Mesonet. Keep in mind though that our normal temperature range at this time of year is 75/53 for the high/low respectively, so we will still be much below normal this afternoon.

However, the return southerly wind flow will keep us milder tonight and we should be above normal for daytime highs on Tuesday. A weak front will move quickly through the state Tuesday evening/night which will only provide a brief interruption in the warming trend. This looks to be, for the most part, a dry system as well with only a few very isolated showers possible during the evening or overnight hours and for the extreme eastern counties at that.

Brisk southerly winds Tuesday will shift back to the NE for Wed morning and a more E to even SE wind by days end. Together with partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies, daytime highs will still be in the low-mid 70s as opposed to upper 70s on Tuesday. Obviously, not a very strong system.

We will be back to a southerly wind flow by Thursday morning and gusty south winds are expected throughout the day. Moisture will quickly return resulting in mostly cloudy skies and at least a 20% chance of showers and possibly some thunder during the day. Depending on how much sunshine we receive, daytime highs could reach the lower 80s.

Cloud cover will also be the wild card for Friday as another frontal boundary will be approaching from the north early in the day. Current indications suggest this boundary will stall out along the OK/KS state line keeping most of us warm and humid along with a good chance of showers/storms, particularly for the more northern counties. Some of those storms may be locally quite strong.

Saturday continues to look rather interesting with the potential for a Spring-like setup. A rather strong disturbance aloft will be moving out of the southern Rockies and into the Plains states during the day. That would set the stage for a round of very strong storms with the trailing cool front late Saturday and into Saturday night. Keep in mind, this particular system is now located in the Pacific and in a data sparse region, so there may be some significant changes in the location, timing, and strength of this system with time. But so far, the longer range guidance has maintained remarkable consistency from run to run and from model to model. If current trends continue, will probably increase the rain chances even further.

Sunday should then be behind the trailing cool front with partly cloudy skies, NE winds, and only slightly cooler conditions. Some lingering showers may still be occurring across the more southern counties to start the day. Monday should see a return to southerly winds with highs back to near 80 but enough moisture for a few showers during the day as well.

In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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