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Unsettled Pattern Developing Next Few Days.

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Despite gusty southerly winds and a more moderate start to our day, the stratus cloud deck that returned so quickly this morning is hindering our warm-up. However, the layer of moisture is extremely shallow so even though a cool front will be pushing through the state this evening/night, this is expected to be a dry system.

It will not have much of an impact on temperatures either as the clouds will hold our daytime highs to the upper 60s and lower 70s for today and we expect to be in that same range on Wednesday, if not a degree or two warmer. Temperatures tonight will also be in the 40s to near 50 which is pretty much where we started the day today. The main difference will be the wind which will be shifting to the NW behind the front this evening and tonight, then NE for the morning hours and E by afternoon. Wind speeds will be on the order of 10-15 mph and we should also see some breaks in the clouds by morning and partly cloudy afternoon skies.

A return to southerly winds for Wed night and gusty southerly winds for Thursday and Friday will also result in warmer temperatures. Look for morning lows to be near 60 Thursday morning and in the 60s Friday morning. Daytime highs will be in the 80s both days.

It will also be more unsettled as the low level jet cranks up by early Thursday morning, there could be a few isolated showers to start the day. However, that activity should then fall apart leaving us with at least some afternoon sunshine. Friday will have better chances of showers/storms, particularly for the more N and NW counties. Another frontal boundary is expected to drop to near the OK/KS state line during the day and provide a focus for showers/storms, some of which will be locally quite strong. The placement of that boundary will be critical regarding our rain chances with some of the guidance keeping it much further north into KS and others bringing it closer to the 412 corridor. Given the uncertainty, will maintain a 40% chance at this time with the emphasis on the more northern counties having the best chance.

Saturday is still looking interesting as the boundary mentioned above will become diffuse and a vigorous system aloft will be moving out of the southern Rockies and into the Plains. So far, the longer range guidance has been pretty consistent in taking most of the energy further north which would suggest the better chances of severe storms would be further north. However, that is certainly subject to change and for now will go with a 60% chance of showers/storms, some of which will likely become severe. The trailing dry line/cool front should be pushing eastward across the state during the evening/overnight hours leaving us with partly cloudy skies and a warm, stable Sunday and Monday.

So, after an early taste of winter with the cold of this past weekend, a more spring-like setup looks to be coming our way in time for the coming weekend.

Dick Faurot

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