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Quiet Weather Pattern.

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A quiet weather pattern continues for at least the next several days. Only some occasional high level cirrus clouds will be around so our nights will generally be clear and cooler than normal and our days mostly sunny and near to slightly above normal. Normal temperatures at this time of year are 61/40 for the high/low respectively; and of course, trending downward as the fall season progresses. Our nights have been running colder than normal due to the presence of very dry low level air and the absence of any significant cloud cover aloft. Our days have also been running a bit below normal this week due to the very light winds and the absence of any warm air advection. The result has been some very pleasant fall weather.

More of the same can be expected for Friday with just some high level cloudiness from time to time and lots of sunshine during the day and generally fair skies at night. Our winds will be somewhat variable in direction on Friday as well due to a weak surface boundary trying to make it into the northern part of the state. The very weak pressure pattern also means the wind speeds will be on the light side and generally less than 10 mph.

Saturday and Sunday will have somewhat stronger southerly winds, so our nights in particular will be milder, but moisture return still looks to be rather meager. A weak disturbance aloft will also produce a little more cloud cover, particularly for Sunday into the day Monday. That system may also produce a chance of rain, but the latest and greatest that has come in with the morning model runs have trended drier with this system. So, will only go with a 20% chance of rain which means we will continue to dry out after the rains of this past Sunday.

Since this particular system is rather weak with little amplification, it will not be followed by another cool down. In fact, we are expecting temperatures to continue to moderate going into next week and daytime highs near 70 appear likely in time for Thanksgiving Day. Southerly winds will be the general rule helping to moderate our temperatures for most of next week, but moisture return is still questionable.

There will be another disturbance aloft likely moving across the state by Friday of next week. Obviously, the timing on this is certainly subject to change and if it should come through more quickly than now anticipated, we may have some showers on Thanksgiving Day. However, the longer range guidance is so far consistent and currently holding this off till Friday. Even then it does not appear to have much amplification to it so will probably not be a big rainmaker either.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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