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Mild Tonight, Much Colder Sunday.

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Colder weather is still on tap for a Sunday morning arrival and there will also be a chance of rain on Sunday and possibly even a light wintry mix Sunday night. However, as the QPF map on the right clearly shows, most of the moisture will be further east of us once again and what precipitation we do receive will be on the light side. There may even be some thunder for the extreme E & SE counties later tonight or on Sunday.

The big story is the change in temperatures after such a mild start to the month of December. In fact, this has been a record setting start to the month, but you know that cannot last and the bottom will be falling out during the day Sunday.

For the overnight hours tonight, light easterly winds and cloudy skies should keep temperatures from cooling much and we should start the day Sunday in the 40s to lower 50s. The cold front will be arriving during the morning hours shifting the winds to northerly and those winds will quickly become strong and gusty. That means the warmest time of day will be during the morning with temperatures starting to fall off after the wind shift and we should be in the lower 40s and possibly even the upper 30s by days end. Northerly winds of 30 mph or more will make it feel much colder.

As mentioned, there will also be some light rain or showers behind the front and possibly some thunder ahead of it for the more SE counties during the day. As the colder air settles in Sunday night, a secondary disturbance aloft will be passing over the state and could wring out some wintry precipitation. Most of the moisture will be moving out as this colder air moves in so what falls will be quite light. However, a light dusting of snow is not out of the question, particularly for the more southern counties where the upper level forcing will be strongest.

After that, it will be quite chilly for Monday and Tuesday with daytime highs struggling to get much above freezing Monday afternoon and morning lows Tuesday morning likely in the teens for most of us. That will be followed by a warming trend as southerly winds return and become rather gusty by later in the week. That will bring temperatures back above normal to end the week. By Friday, another system will be coming our way with more cloud cover and another chance of rain or showers. Current indications suggest most of the moisture with this system will probably be further east of us again, but at least we will have a chance. This system does not appear to be overly cold, so a brief cool down is expected going into the coming weekend.

Perhaps more importantly is the fact that the wind pattern aloft is changing and will be more supportive of periodic cool fronts moving through with at least the potential for some moisture. We do not see a real wet system coming down the pike just yet, but the more unsettled pattern that is shaping up will at least provide some chances for the moisture that is so badly needed.

In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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