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Friday Morning Update

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A mild Friday is expected with highs in the mid-40s with increasing clouds this afternoon.  Late tonight a storm system moves near the region with a chance of light snow across NE OK. 

 Our short term forecast revolves around the upper level low lifting out across southwest and central Texas this morning.  This feature is producing snow across the west Texas area with some mixed precipitation a possibility later this morning near or southwest of the DFW metro.  Clouds will move across southern OK this morning and across the northern part of the state this afternoon and evening as the main upper level low begins to move across the state tonight. There will be a chance of light snow or a mix developing late Friday night into early Saturday morning directly underneath and slightly east of the cold core of air aloft as it moves across the state.  Even though our moisture content will be very limited, the lift of the system is quite strong and the cold air aloft could produce some light wintry precip near the track of the low.  Because the snow is expected to be very light, we'll not expect any significant accumulation or major travel issues during this time period, but travelers should remain aware of this light snow potential for late Friday night and early Saturday morning.  After this system clears the state, we're in store for a nice weekend with decreasing clouds and highs in the upper 40s Saturday afternoon.  Another cold front will slide southward Saturday evening bringing temps back down a few degrees for Sunday afternoon highs.  

By the middle of next week a major upper level system will move near the southern plains allowing for a good chance of showers or storms for part of eastern OK and western Arkansas.  The timing of the system remains extremely problematic, which is normal this many days in advance of a Pacific originating storm.  Model data will not resolve the system correctly until it draws closer to the upper air observation network.  Current EURO data is almost a day slower than GFS solutions and would keep precip chances going from Wednesday into Thursday.  GFS model output suggests the system would arrive Tuesday and exit the state sometime Wednesday.  While we need to include some probabilities for these time periods, there will more than likely be changes to the data and therefore our forecast as the confidence level increases or decreases as the time period advances.  The prudent call is to keep a decent chance of showers and storms in the forecast beginning Tuesday and ending Thursday.   

The timing of the system will also impact the temperature forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday.  A slower system will support a slightly warmer high temperature forecast for Tuesday than we currently are forecasting.  Again, please remain aware that some changes will be possible for this time periods data, so please check back often for updates.   

The pattern will remain active with several more systems possible during the next month.  

Our official high yesterday was 47 and was several degrees warmer than our forecasted temperature.

The daily normal high is 47 and the low is 28.

Daily records include a low of  -8 recorded in 1947 and a high of  70 recorded in 1956 and 1955.

 

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter.

http://www.facebook.com/AlanCroneNewsOn6

Twitter  @alancrone

 

I'll be discussing the weather today on numerous Radio Oklahoma Network affiliates throughout the morning and early afternoon.

 

I'll also be forecasting this morning on The KRMG Morning News with Dan Potter.

 

Thanks for reading the Friday Morning Discussion.

 

Have a super great day!

 

Alan Crone

KOTV

 

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