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Warmer Wednesday, Then Turning Cooler Again.

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In case you are wondering, we are now on the upswing with regards to our normal temperatures. Our normal daytime highs bottom out in the middle of January and then start the slow climb toward our summertime maximums. For example, the normal temperature range for today is 27/48, but by the end of the month it will be 28/50 for the low/high respectively.

Of course, this is still January so there will be some ups and downs but the general trend will be upward. In fact, we should be at or just a bit above normal this afternoon, and much above normal for Wednesday afternoon. That will be followed by another drop starting on Thursday which will be followed by another rebound over the course of the weekend. So, the temperature roller coaster ride will be in full operation over the coming week.

There are also lots of uncertainties regarding the specifics as the numerical guidance we receive several times a day has been going through more flip-flops than an Olympic gymnast. Quite frankly, the lack of consistency gives us a lower than normal confidence level regarding the details on any given day over the coming week.

Will start with tonight and tomorrow. Clouds have been more persistent over the extreme NE counties today and the vertical profiles of temperature and moisture suggest most of us should start the day Wednesday with a low stratus cloud deck. How quickly that burns off will have huge implications regarding afternoon temperatures. For now, will be optimistic and shoot for some low 60s, but that is dependent on how much sunshine we actually receive.

Thursday is very questionable as the guidance now suggests the initial surge of cooler air will have arrived by early morning which should keep most of us in the 40s all day. However, there is also the possibility of a wave forming along the boundary just south of I-40 which would have the effect of drawing much warmer air further northward and would not be surprised if some of our southern neighbors are into the 60s during the day with folks to the north not much above 40. Thus, the uncertainty regarding putting a number on the high temperature forecast.

The cooler air will surge further southward for Friday and Saturday so lows in the 20s and highs in the 40s appear reasonable. But, the upper flow will bring clouds back on Sunday and along with that the chance of showers. At least with southerly winds, temperatures will continue to moderate going into early next week, but the strength, timing, and location of a system aloft is highly uncertain due to the numerous flip-flops. Thus, will go with at least a slight chance of showers for early next week. Hopefully, this system will turn out to be wetter than now anticipated, but for now it does not appear to be a drought denter, let alone a drought breaker for us.

In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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