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Storms Tuesday Night, Cold & Wet Wednesday.

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As you can see from the QPF map on the right, valid through Thursday morning, we stand to get another round of significant rainfall over the next few days. In fact, if this verifies, some of us could end up with nearly 2" by the time it is all over with. Along with the rain also comes a threat of severe storms so this system will need to be closely monitored. The time line still suggests the storms will be most likely for the overnight hours of Tuesday night. If that is indeed the case, then the most likely severe mode would be wind/hail. Any storms that may form during the late afternoon hours of Tuesday ahead of the approaching cold front would also pose a tornado threat.

Between now and then, the low cloud deck will keep temperatures very mild along with possibly some drizzle or a few sprinkles through tonight and into the day Tuesday. Any sunshine at all will quickly boost temperatures well into the 70s, but sunshine will be hard to come by as that stratus deck will be difficult to erode. Temperatures tonight will also be mild with morning lows only dropping into the lower 60s.

The passage of the cold front Tuesday night will be followed by a dramatic change with temperatures Wednesday afternoon nearly 30 degrees colder. Strong southerly winds ahead of the front through Tuesday will be shifting to gusty NW winds behind the cold front Tuesday night which will continue through Wednesday. As a result, Wednesday morning will likely start off near 40 and will not warm much if at all. Cloudy skies and periods of rain and showers will also persist for much of the day Wednesday and possibly even a few rumbles of thunder.

Depending on how quickly the clouds clear, we could see temperatures Thursday morning near the freezing mark in the colder valley locations. Any lingering cloud cover will be quickly clearing during the day followed by lots of afternoon sunshine, but still very cool with brisk northerly winds and highs only in the 50s.

Friday morning looks to be the most likely candidate for a frost/freeze as the winds will have calmed down by then and skies should be clear. The sunny skies should get daytime temperatures back to near 60 which is still quite cool for this time of year.

The weekend will see a return to southerly winds and a warming trend. Also, a weak system aloft will produce at least some cloud cover and possibly even an isolated shower or two. All in all, the weekend looks promising at this time though.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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