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Good Chance Rain, Then Warmer for the Weekend.

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Notice the QPF map on the right, valid through this coming Wed morning. By the way, that does not by any stretch mean that it will rain every day for the next week, this is just an estimate of the rainfall potential during that time span. Actually, we will have several systems that will provide chances of showers/storms during the next week. One is impacting our weather today with showers and some thunder. That system is a disturbance aloft that will be working its way on eastward and having less of an impact by the Fri/Sat/Sun time frame. For the rest of today, tonight and much of Thursday though, we can expect mostly cloudy skies and a good chance of showers/storms. This is not likely to be a severe weather maker although some small hail and localized wind gusts are not out of the question.

As that system moves further east, we will be left with only a very slight chance of a few isolated showers/storms for late Fri/Sat/Sun. Then, a stronger system will approach by early next week which should be pushing a cool front through the state and bringing a better chance of showers/storms, particularly for the Monday/Monday night time frame. These will also pose a greater risk of becoming severe.

Temperatures have already been impacted by the clouds/showers. We made the 90 degree mark for the first time this year yesterday, but will be confined to the 70s for this afternoon and for Thursday. With little or no rain during the day and at least some sunshine, look for daytime highs to be in the mid-upper 80s for Fri-Sun.

Also, yesterday we had a westerly wind component which helped to warm things up, but a more southerly wind is expected right on through the weekend. As a result, the overnight lows will generally be in the 60s to near 70 through the weekend along with the above normal daytime highs.

Early next week and for that matter much of next week could be more interesting. As mentioned above, a stronger cool front should be pushing across the state late Monday or during the overnight hours. As is usually the case at these longer time ranges, the guidance is not very consistent. A consensus approach would certainly suggest a good chance of showers/storms for late Monday through the overnight hours and into the day Tuesday; and as mentioned above, that pattern would be more supportive of severe weather.

One set of guidance would then stall the front out keeping us with rain chances through the middle of the week, whereas another set of guidance suggests the front will push well south of us providing some cooler, drier conditions going into the latter part of next week. For now, am favoring the European solution which has the cooler, drier forecast and which has been more consistent at these longer time ranges recently…..although, have to admit it has also had a few bad solutions thrown in as well.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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