The weather pattern will undergo an upper air change early this week allowing for above normal temperatures and very little chance of organized storm chances for most of the week. Surface temperatures will move into the lower or even mid-90s this week, but recent rainfall combined with abundant green vegetation will allow temperature heat index values to move near 100 to 104 by the middle to end of the week. A weak surface boundary may approach northern OK Thursday or Friday, but we will not include any chance of isolated showers or storms in the forecast at this point in the cycle.
The weekend worked out well for our Tulsa Tough Visitors. The rain chances late Saturday night into Sunday morning fizzled with very little impact across northern OK. The convection split into two chunks, with one complex moving southward across southwestern OK pre-dawn Sunday and the other sliding across southeastern Kansas. Only a few scattered storms were detected Sunday morning across NE OK, and none located over Tulsa. Last week, the GFS and EURO were very bullish on the storm chances, but if you'll recall, the NAM had continued to offer only slight encouragement for adding storm chances Sunday morning. I brought the pops up from 30 to 40% Friday in anticipation of a few storms floating across the NE OK vicinity by pre-dawn Sunday, but the NAM was correct with very little precipitation. The weather forecasting business is very humbling.
The mid-level ridge should build across the southern plains with the polar jet taking a ride northward across the northern plains. This ridge is typical for late June and July, and is slightly ahead of schedule. But as stated last week on the blog, I don't think this is the big "death ridge" that sticks around all summer. At least I hope it's not! We do see some signs of the ridge weakening by the end of the week into early next week. The ridge would slide southeast and allow a short wave trough to move across northern OK and southern Kansas either this weekend or early next week. Even so, only a slight chance of showers or storms would be included in the forecast. At this point, we'll keep it out of the forecast. We'll keep you posted!
The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 88 recorded at 4:31 pm.
The normal daily average high is 86 and the low is 66.
Our daily records include a high of 108 on this date from 1911 and a low of 54 from 1955.
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I'll be discussing the forecast with Dan Potter and The KRMG Morning News. You'll also hear my state-wide and regional weather forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state through the noon hour.
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