Not Quite So Hot Thursday, Chance Weekend Showers.

Notice the very warm start to our day as shown by the morning low temperature map on the right, courtesy of the OK Mesonet. For the last few days, our morning lows have been running about 10 degrees above normal and our daytime highs about the same. Quite a contrast to the very cool Spring we just experienced and the very cool first week of June.

A contributing factor to the above normal temperatures has been the sunny skies and gusty SSW winds. That will change somewhat for Thursday as a weak frontal boundary up in KS will make a run at us and shift the winds to a more E or even NE direction for at least part of the day Thursday. Also, the weaker pressure gradient will result in much lighter winds. However, the presence of warm, dry air aloft will put a lid on any rain chances with this particular system and we expect to see lots of sunshine again on Thursday. But, the change in wind direction and the lighter wind speeds should knock at least a few degrees off our daytime highs for tomorrow. Unfortunately, the lighter winds may also result in some air quality issues before the day is over.

As we go into the weekend and early next week, a weakness in the ridging aloft will result in somewhat cooler temperatures aloft and that in turn will provide at least a slight chance of a shower or storm, particularly for Sunday into Monday. We should also have at least partly cloudy skies so that combination will also knock at least a few degrees off our daytime highs as well.

In fact, some of the newer guidance that is coming in is more suggestive of a more significant rainfall event for Sunday into Monday. The GFS has a very weak signal for showers/storms and keeps most of the precipitation somewhere else, but we at least have a slight chance. On the other hand, the ECMWF which is the European model has a much more generous signal for showers/storms with much of that activity right over E OK. It will probably take a few more model runs before these differences get sorted out, but the bottom line is that we will at least see a brief break in this heat wave along with at least a chance of showers/storms. As long as we can get periodic chances of rain to keep the soils somewhat moist and the vegetation green, that goes a long way toward mitigating the sort of extreme heat we have experienced the last two summers.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot