A line of strong to severe thunderstorm activity is moving across portions of the state this morning (3am). Some of the storms may be severe with damaging wind gusts near 60 mph and some small hail. Due to severe weather operations underway at this hour, the morning discussion must be brief.
After the morning storms, some data suggest another round may develop this afternoon with a few residual outflow boundaries near the region. Temps will remain in the lower to mid-80s for most locations with mostly cloudy conditions this morning, but partly sunny conditions will be in the picture for later today across northeastern OK. This may also allow some scattered daytime convection to pop up early this afternoon. Temps will be much warmer across southwestern and west-central OK.
The upper air flow remains from the northwest and may allow another MCS ( complex) to develop later tonight across southwestern Kansas and move into western OK. Most of the model data support this system remaining west of our immediate area, but with northwest flow aloft, one must remain aware of the potential. We'll keep a chance in our forecast for some late tonight and early morning storms for Tuesday morning before taking the probability southward across the southern sections of the state Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Wednesday morning will also support a slight chance of another MCS nearby, but the confidence remains low, therefore the probability will remain low for our forecast cycle this morning.
The mid-level ridge of high pressure will build back into the region by the end of the week allowing for muggy and warm conditions with highs in the lower to mid-90s and morning lows in the lower to mid-70s.