Thursday Morning Update

Spectacular weather is underway across northern OK and the surrounding vicinity this morning with upper 50s and lower to mid-60s common across the region.  We do see a few scattered showers and storms well to our northwest now, but these will not impact our area during the day.  Later this evening a large complex of thunderstorm activity will move from Western Kansas into western and possibly central OK.  Severe weather will be a possibility with this complex but most of the model data suggest that most of this system will remain slightly west of our area.  Needless to say, even a slight shift eastward would bring this system into part of our area and we'll continue to keep a slight mention of thunderstorms in the Friday morning to midday forecast. 

The main threat for our western OK neighbors tonight and overnight will be damaging wind with some large hail.  I'll post the current Storm Prediction Center risk assessment graphic on my Facebook fan page later this morning, so be sure and take a look if you're interested in the outlook area.

Temperatures today will move back into the mid-80s with east to southeast winds around 10 mph, but highs tomorrow could be a few degrees cooler due to some Friday morning to midday clouds.  We'll stick with a high near 85 for Friday but if the western complex slides more to the east, this temp will end up cooler. 

The data this morning suggest the extreme northeastern section of the state could experience northeast winds from late Friday afternoon into Saturday before the winds attempt to back out of the east to southeast Sunday.  This could keep slightly drier air into the region a day or two longer than previous forecasts meaning the Saturday and Sunday highs may also be a degree or two cooler than yesterday's data.  Consequently we have lowered the Saturday highs to near 86 and Sunday just shy of 90. 

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The massive strong mid-level ridge common for this time of year will not intensify over our area next week, but some weak mid-level ridging will develop.  This means our temps will move closer to normal readings with lows in the upper 70s and highs in the lower by Tuesday and Wednesday.  The recent rainfall and lush green vegetation will offset the normally hot August sun angle and keep the readings a degree or two off where they would normally end up with the expected pattern. 

One large unknown factor for the early to middle part of next week will be the possible tropical development in the Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico.  This system could blossom into a tropical cyclone during the next 24 to 36 hours and the exact path and outcome is impossible to know with any certainty at this point in the forecast cycle. 

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 84 recorded at 2:54pm.

The normal daily average high is 94 and the low is 72.

Our daily records include a high of109 from 1936 and 1923.  The record low is 53 from 1994. Precip for the year remains at  25.83 inches which is only -2.61 inches below normal for the year.

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Thanks for reading the Thursday Morning Weather Discussion and Blog.

Have a super great day.

Alan Crone

KOTV