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Unsettled Weekend and Early Next Week.

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Hope you have enjoyed the last few days as a more unsettled pattern will be setting up in time for the weekend and quite likely extending well into the following week. Notice the 7 day QPF graphic on the right which suggests the possibility of 2" or more of rain by the time it is all over and done with. Keep in mind, this graphic depicts an areal average so some locations could easily wind up with much more and others much less but the potential is certainly there for an average of at least 2 inches.

In addition to the potential for significant rainfall, there may also be a few severe storms mixed in so it will be a rather active period that is coming up. There is still some uncertainty regarding the timing of the heavier storms as a weak frontal boundary will try to make a run at us but is expected to stall out and a series of impulses aloft will also be affecting the state.

According to the latest and greatest data available, here is how things should shake out. First of all, another fine fall day is in store for us today with sunny skies and temperatures reaching the lower 80s along with gusty southerly winds. Those southerly winds will only diminish slightly tonight so Friday morning will get off to a milder start with morning lows near 60. Gusty southerly winds again Friday will finally bring more moisture up this way so look for partly cloudy skies and daytime highs into the lower 80s again.

For the Friday night football games, southerly winds will still be blowing and temperatures should still be in the 70s. A few showers/storms may develop late in the evening, but right now it appears that the better chances of showers/storms will be after the games have ended and through the overnight hours. The frontal boundary should be pretty much through the area by early Saturday morning, but is expected to stall out along the Red River and then try to move back northward on Sunday/Monday. That will keep us with lingering cloud cover through Sunday and into early next week.

Much of the day Saturday is looking pretty good with lesser chances of showers/storms after the early morning activity moves out. But, additional rounds of showers/storms are likely for Sunday, Monday, and into the day Tuesday as well. In fact, some of the longer range guidance suggests it may be after Wednesday before things finally start to clear out.

The series of disturbances aloft, the presence of the surface boundary, and the widespread showers/storms will also play havoc with winds/temperatures. Look for the winds to be shifting to a more N/NE direction as the front initially moves through early Saturday, then more E/SE by late Sunday, S/SE on Monday/Tuesday and eventually a strong northerly flow when the boundary finally clears the state later in the week. Temperatures should be generally in the 70s during the day but clouds/showers/storms/winds will all have an impact on just how mild any given day will be. Also, a return to cooler conditions will follow the northerly winds later in the week.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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