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Possible Frost/Freeze Tonight

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Officially, Tulsa has not had a freeze so far this fall.  The coldest we have been up to this point is 34 degrees and we have already had a number of frosty mornings.  I mention that because the normal first freeze date for Tulsa is Nov 3 so we are already past that.  Also, we will be close again tonight but temperatures in Tulsa should stay just above the freezing mark.  Even so, the outlying cooler valleys and the more northern and western counties will likely be at or perhaps a bit below freezing so a frost/freeze advisory applies to most of us for Thursday morning.  In other words, time to bring in the tender plants if you want to keep them around for much longer.

The cooler air is coming in on the heels of the cold front that arrived during the early morning hours.  It brought widespread rain and some thunder as the 48 hour rainfall map on the right clearly shows, courtesy of the OK Mesonet.  The second map on the right shows the 24 hour change in temperature as of noon today, so this will be a pretty good cool-down.  In fact, afternoon highs will only be in the lower 50s and the gusty NW winds will make it feel much cooler.  At least the sky will be clearing this afternoon leaving us with clear skies for the evening and overnight hours and also for the next several days after that.  Also, the winds will be subsiding after sunset setting up excellent radiational cooling conditions for tonight and therefore the frost/freeze possibilities.

After that, sunny skies and a nice rebound into the lower 60s is expected for Thursday along with light and variable winds for much of the day making it probably the most pleasant day of the week.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday will also have lots of sunshine along with a return to southerly winds which will be a little gusty at times.  This will result in warmer nights and milder days as we head into next week.  The timing on our next chances of rain have not been very consistent with the longer range guidance.  Right now, will carry a very slight 10% chance on Monday and only a 20% chance on Tuesday under partly cloudy skies and relatively mild temperatures.  There are some indications a stronger cold front will arrive after that bringing the coolest air of the season, but there is still a lot of uncertainty regarding just how cool and if there will be much in the way of precipitation with that system.

In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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