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Warm, Windy, Chance Rain Saturday, Cooler Early Next Week.

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As the map on the right shows, courtesy of the OK Mesonet, the showers during the overnight hours were rather spotty and for the most part did not do much more than settle the dust. The upper level system responsible for those showers has quickly moved on eastward leaving us with lots of sunshine for most of the day today. However, a stronger system will be moving across the state tonight and Saturday spreading clouds and chances of showers and perhaps even some thunder ahead of it.

That makes temperatures a little tricky for this evening and through the night tonight as the generally fair skies for the evening hours should allow temperatures to fall back into the 50s along with a brisk southerly wind. However, as the clouds move in and thicken and as those brisk southerly winds continue to blow, don't be surprised if temperatures actually warm some by morning. In fact, upper 50s to near 60 should be the general rule to start the day Saturday.

Strong southerly winds commonly of 20-30 mph with higher gusts are expected throughout the day Saturday so it will be very windy. Also, the clouds should begin to thin out from W-E later in the day as the upper level energy moves on eastward. That will take the threat of showers/thunder on east with it so our best chance of rain will be first thing in the morning till early in the afternoon followed by some late afternoon sunshine. With the very warm start to the day, afternoon highs should be in the 70s for Saturday and possibly even some upper 70s if the clouds thin out fast enough.

Another cool front is still on schedule to arrive Sunday morning with gusty SW winds veering around to the W and the NW as the front moves through the state. That means the day will start off very warm with morning temperatures in the 60s and rising into the upper 60s to near 70 before the winds shift to the NW. Cooler air will be gradually filtering in behind the wind shift so temperatures will still be in the 60s during the afternoon followed by noticeably cooler air that night and into Monday. Also, the veering wind profile at the surface and aloft will shunt most of the moisture on E of us taking any chance of rain on east as well. So, the NW winds during the afternoon and any cool air advection will be partially offset by the sunny skies all day long.

Monday and Tuesday then look to be sunny and cooler with morning lows in the 30s and daytime highs in the 50s or lower 60s. Certainly not as cool as this past week. After that, for those of you who like to look at the numerical guidance, there are some major differences between the GFS and the Euro as we get into the latter part of next week. For now, am thinking the Euro is an outlier and going with the more conservative ensemble solutions which brings in some cooler air again late Thursday and for Friday along with another chance of rain during that time frame. That is certainly subject to change though.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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