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A Look Ahead to the Rest of Winter.

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Yesterday I mentioned that winter was half over which of course means we still have the second half of the winter ahead of us. That naturally leads to the question of what the rest of this winter will have in store. Keep in mind that up to this point our winter has not gone like the projections back in November were anticipating. The lack of a well-defined climatic signal at that time created greater uncertainty regarding how this winter would go and so far the below normal temperatures and the extreme cold that we have experienced were not very well anticipated at those longer lead times.

So, with that caveat in mind the first two maps on the right take us through the end of January and the second two maps are for the month of February. Notice that there is a strong signal for a cold end to the month just east of Oklahoma and we are on the western fringe of the coldest projections. That is a pattern we have been in for over a week now and it looks like that will persist through the end of the month. Notice there is not much hope for any significant moisture during that time frame either.

The second two maps require some explanation as NE OK is in a large area labeled EC for both temperature and precipitation. That does NOT mean we will be near normal. The EC stands for Equal Chances. In other words, there is no well-defined signal to suggest we will be either at/above/below normal in either the temperature or precipitation category so there is basically a 1/3 chance that we will be near normal, or above normal, or below normal. So, the cooler than normal December and the cold start to January may or may not continue through February. I know, not very specific but there is just too much uncertainty to be any more precise than that.

As far as our weekend is concerned, after a chilly day today look for a return to much warmer conditions along with lots of sunshine both days. Afternoon highs in the 50s to near 60 on Saturday will be followed by daytime highs well into the 60s on Sunday. It will be rather breezy both days with SW winds shifting to NW Saturday then back to W or SW Sunday. Another weak cool front will arrive on Monday shifting the winds back to northerly followed by a cool-down for the early part of next week. There is no mention of precipitation any time soon though.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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