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Fire Danger Followed by an Interesting Pattern Early Next Week.

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The pattern change mentioned in yesterday's blog remains on track and a persistent wet signal is still showing up in the longer range guidance for early next week. Don't want to get your hopes up too much, but it does look like a good chance of precipitation along about Tuesday. There remain some timing and type details to be worked out as temperatures will be tricky and we could end up with either just a cold rain or a significant winter weather event. Too early to get too excited about those prospects just yet, but it certainly does look like we will be entering a more active period. Notice the 7 day QPF map on the right which is showing a stronger precipitation signal, particularly just east of us but at least it is edging more our direction.

Between now and then, the more zonal flow aloft will also keep the arctic air bottled up further north. As a result, even though a couple of more frontal passages are on tap, it will just be colder instead of the bitter, biting cold and the 40 degree temperature swings such as we experienced over the last 48 hours.

For the overnight hours tonight, clear skies and very dry air are in place, but we will have a light southerly wind for much of the night and to start the day Wednesday. That should keep temperatures from totally bottoming out although it will still be cold with morning lows in the low-mid teens for most of us. Lots of sunshine will produce a quick warm-up with temperatures well into the 40s during the day. However, gusty southerly winds will also create a high fire danger situation.

Thursday will start off clear but clouds will be on the increase and it will still be windy with gusty southerly winds all day long. Temperatures will also reach the 50s during the day so another high fire danger situation will be the main concern.

Friday will see another cool front dropping southward, but the timing and positioning are somewhat questionable which could lead to a large temperature gradient. Temperatures well into the 50s and even the 60s will prevail south of the boundary and only in the lower 40s behind it. There will also be mostly cloudy skies and a slight chance of showers.

Saturday and Sunday will then be cooler with highs in the 40s and lows below freezing but despite a good bit of cloud cover, we should be dry.

A few rain showers will be possible on Monday, then comes Tuesday. That is when it could become interesting, but lots can change between now and then so for now will just go with a good chance of precipitation; potentially a winter storm.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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