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Warm, Windy Weekend; Chance Storms Sunday.

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Interesting weather pattern developing this weekend and into early next week with fire danger concerns on Saturday, showers and storms with some possibly severe on Sunday, and much colder weather for early next week with a frost/freeze potential. So, let's take things one day at a time.

Today's sunshine and highs near 80 will be replaced by increasing cloud cover for the evening and overnight hours and mostly cloudy skies for Saturday. Southerly winds will also be increasing with winds back up to 30 mph or more at times during the day Saturday creating fire danger concerns. However, the mostly cloudy skies and higher humidity levels will mitigate those concerns at least somewhat. Temperatures will only fall off to the lower 60s to start the day followed by afternoon highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and minimum relative humidity levels in the 40-50% range during the heat of the day. So, a warm and windy day, but it should be a dry one.

That will change on Sunday as strong southerly winds will continue through Saturday night and much of the day Sunday bringing a deeper layer of moisture our way. At the same time, some energy aloft will be moving over the state and a strong cold front will arrive late in the day or during the overnight hours. That combination will produce a good chance of showers/storms on Sunday, some of which should be developing by late morning into the afternoon hours. That will likely be followed by a break in the action until the actual cold front arrives that evening or night with another round of showers/storms. From the threat map on the right, it is obvious there will be a widespread area with the potential for severe storms. Lots can change between now and then, but right now it appears that the primary threat for our area would be wind/hail.

Locally heavy rains may also occur as the QPF map on the right also suggests. Although we are on the western fringe of the heavier precipitation, some locations could receive an inch or more in a short period of time. Unfortunately, the rainfall potential drops of quickly to the west where the rains are needed the most.

That will be followed by a significant cool-down for Mon-Tue. Lingering clouds and some showers together with a gusty northerly wind will keep temperatures in the 40s to low 50s on Monday. There may even be some wintry precipitation in the NW corner of the state to start the day. Our skies should have cleared out by Tuesday morning and along with much lighter winds will set the stage for a frost/freeze potential to start the day.

After that, temperatures will be moderating again until another weaker frontal boundary approaches along about Thursday with a chance of a few showers/storms.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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