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Warmer Wednesday; Showers/Storms by Thursday.

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A significant pattern change will be developing by early next week with another round of much cooler weather likely headed our way once again. Between now and then, temperatures will be running above normal through the coming weekend along with the potential for showers and storms, some of which will likely be severe.

First things first and that is a warm and windy Wednesday is on tap with gusty southerly winds of 20-30 mph during the day and afternoon temperatures reaching the low-mid 80s. We will start off near 50 with light winds and fair skies but as the day wears on those strong southerly winds will bring moisture quickly back into the state. That will set the stage for a round of showers/storms likely starting in far W OK Wednesday evening where they will likely be severe. That activity will be weakening as it moves eastward likely reaching E OK after midnight and through the morning hours of Thursday. A cool front will also be pushing through the state Thursday morning bringing an end to any showers/storms by that afternoon as everything pushes on eastward. This all adds up to a decent chance of rain for late Wed night into the morning hours of Thursday and ending that afternoon. Northerly winds for much of the day Thursday should hold temperatures into the low-mid 70s with some afternoon sunshine.

Friday will have lots of sunshine, a return to southerly winds, and afternoon temperatures back around the 80 degree mark. Gusty southerly winds on Saturday will bring lots more moisture back but the lack of a focus should keep our rain chances to only around the 20% level, but any storms that can develop could be locally severe.

Sunday looks to be more interesting in that regard as a much stronger system gets organized to our west and starts heading our way. Showers/storms are expected to be more widespread and the threat of severe weather will also be more of a concern during the course of the day. That particular system is out over the Pacific Ocean right now, so there remains considerable uncertainty regarding the timing, intensity, and location of the strongest storms. Notice the 7 day QPF map on the right which has us on the western and southern edge of the heavier precipitation during that time frame. That is certainly subject to change, so we will see.

Of interest is the much more amplified pattern aloft that will be developing early next week and which was alluded to above. That more amplified pattern will open the door for another surge of much cooler air to arrive starting on Monday and which should be very noticeable for the rest of the week. Notice the 8-14 day temperature and precipitation maps on the right which have a strong cool signal for the entire central and eastern US. Unfortunately, after the weekend, our chances of additional moisture do not look very promising though.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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