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Cool Start to May, Big Warm-Up for the Weekend.

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Now that we are into the month of May, the two maps on the right are the general outlooks across the country for the month. According to this outlook, we will be warmer than normal for the month as a whole which if it verifies would be the first warmer than normal month since Sep of 2013. Unfortunately with regard to precipitation, we are in the dreaded EC category. That means there is an Equal Chance that the month will be drier, wetter, or near normal with respect to moisture. In other words, there is no well defined climate signal to suggest which way it will go. Let's hope we are at least near normal since May is normally our wettest month of the year and we are going into the month with less than half our normal precipitation up to this point.

May has certainly started off on the cool side as the morning low temperature map on the right, courtesy of the OK Mesonet clearly shows. Afternoon temperatures will also be much cooler than normal with daytime highs only expected to reach into the mid-upper 60s which is nearly 10 degrees below normal. Brisk NW winds are keeping us on the cool side but at least we will see lots of sunshine.

Friday will also get off to a cool start with morning lows in the low 40s, but our daytime highs will make it back into the 70s under sunny skies and with a lighter westerly wind. After that, a big time warm-up is on schedule with sunny skies and a return to southerly winds for Saturday and gusty southerly winds going into next week. Daytime highs well into the 80s are expected on Saturday and we could see our first 90 degree weather of this year on Sunday. In fact, temperatures will be close to 90 for the first few days of next week along with gusty southerly winds and lots of sunshine. Our nights will also be warmer with morning lows near 50 Saturday morning, near 60 Sunday morning, and in the 60s for next week.

This change in the weather pattern will eventually bring some moisture our way. The southerly winds will bring lots of low level moisture resulting in more cloudiness next week, but a strong cap in place will likely keep a lid on any shower or storm chances until the middle part of the week. That is when a more unsettled pattern looks to be developing which should bring at least a chance of showers/storms on Wednesday and a better chance for Thu/Fri. At least the longer range guidance has a stronger precipitation signal by then, but then again that has shown up in the past at those time ranges and it shifted further east of us by the time the system actually made it here.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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