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Chance Rain Tonight, Warmer Next Week.

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Although we have a good shot at rain overnight tonight, as you can see from the QPF map on the right which is valid through 7 PM Sat, it will not amount to much. Some folks may get a quarter inch or a little more, but for the most part it will be less than that. Cannot completely rule out the possibility of thunder tonight either, and maybe even some small hail, but again those chances are quite small. Having said that, look for light rain or showers to be moving this way from KS by early evening, becoming more widespread overnight, and then ending from W-E during the morning hours. Little or no rain is expected for most of the day Saturday despite overcast skies. Another weak system will be moving across the state Saturday night bringing a slight chance of showers into the morning hours of Sunday, but again, that will not amount to much either.

However, the cloudy skies and an E/NE wind of 10-12 mph will keep temperatures much below normal again with daytime highs only in the 60s to near 70 Saturday after starting off in the upper 40s. Sunday will also be mostly cloudy for much of the day but with a more SE wind up to 20 mph or more, it will be a bit warmer. Keep in mind our normal daytime highs are around 80 so the mid 70s expected for Sunday will still be cooler than normal.

After that, things really start warming up with strong southerly winds each day next week. Those winds will bring warm, humid air northward from the Gulf of Mexico, but the air aloft will be characterized by warm, dry air as an upper level ridge builds over the state. This will keep the atmosphere effectively capped and prevent any additional showers/storms till along about the Friday/Saturday time frame. It will also be much warmer with lots of sunshine and daytime highs reaching well into the 80s if not the lower 90s.

By late next week through the holiday weekend, the longer range guidance continues to suggest a much more unstable weather pattern developing with a strong disturbance aloft moving this way from the west. This will likely set the stage for showers/storms perhaps by Friday but becoming more likely through the weekend. Those showers/storms could provide not only some badly needed rainfall but also bring a threat of severe storms. Far too early to get too specific about those prospects, but at least the prospects are certainly there.

In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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