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Increasing Chances of Showers/Storms.

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With the emphasis on rain the last few days, have failed to mention that the month of May was the first month since September of last year in which the average temperature for the month was warmer than normal. In fact, since Jan of 2013 there have only been 4 months that were warmer than normal, Jan, Jun, and Sep of 2013 and May of 2014. Although June of this year is only a few days old, it is certainly getting off to a very warm start as well and today will be the warmest day of this forecast cycle. But, after a hot, humid day today we will experience a break in the heat although the humidity levels will be even higher.

Daytime highs in the 80s are expected for Thu/Fri/Sat and perhaps only in the upper 70s for Sunday before climbing back into the mid 80s next week. At least that is closer to normal for this time of year. Overnight lows will be in the 70s for the next several nights which is much warmer than normal, then dropping into the 60s as we go into next week.

The bigger issue will be showers/storms which will be a possibility starting later tonight and then each day/night right on into early next week. A frontal boundary will stall out tomorrow along the OK/KS state line and meander around there through Friday and into the day Saturday. It should finally get a stronger southward push late Saturday or more likely into the day Sunday which will help to cool things off a little more by then.

More importantly, this slow moving system together with a general W to NW flow pattern aloft will create a favorable pattern for periods of showers/storms to develop or move across our area on just about any given day through Monday at least. Right now, it looks like we will see some storms moving our way after midnight tonight ending during the early morning hours, perhaps reforming late tomorrow afternoon although most likely further north. Then another round likely moving our way by early Friday morning and more of the same going into Saturday. The overall best chance still looks to be on Sunday when the main synoptic frontal boundary arrives.

Notice the 7 day QPF map on the right which shows the potential for some locally very heavy rainfall through the period. Keep in mind, this is an areal average so not everyone will receive that much, but that also means some locations could end up with even more. In other words, too much rain too fast will be a distinct possibility resulting in localized drainage problems.

This type of pattern can also produce severe weather and we will have the potential for damaging winds, damaging hail, and perhaps even a tornado or two by the time it is all said and done. In other words, a very unsettled pattern will prevail at least through early next week.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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