The front is located to our south this morning. And the storm zone has been located along and north of the boundary for the last several hours. Most of the activity will be south of the Tulsa metro for the next few hours, but we'll keep a shot of storms in the forecast for the southernmost locations for the next few hours. A surface ridge of high pressure will build southward across the Missouri Valley today bringing slightly drier and cooler air to the northern third of the state. After the early morning clouds, I anticipate a nice afternoon with highs in the lower to mid-80s along with northeast winds at 10 to 15 mph. Some of the hi-res data suggest a small chance of showers across northwestern OK midday to early afternoon. It's doubtful this small wave will survive into northeastern OK later this afternoon.
The dry air will allow Thursday morning lows to drop into the upper 50s and lower 60s with Thursday afternoon highs in the mid or upper 80s. A few showers or storms may develop Thursday afternoon or evening across far western OK but should remain to our west. There will be an outside chance late Thursday night into pre-dawn Friday for a shower or storm to move near our western most locations, but the chance for most of eastern OK will remain very low.
The 4th of July appears mild and dry with highs in the upper 80s to near 90. The return southerly flow will develop by Friday morning into the afternoon. This will effectively bring the lower level moisture back into the region Friday afternoon or evening, but the chance for any showers or storms will remain low if not zero.
The weekend will feature southerly flow, humid conditions, and highs back into the lower 90s. A mid-level ridge of high pressure should be the dominate feature for most of north Texas into the southern half of the state, but this may leave the extreme northern OK and southern Kansas vicinity vulnerable for a few showers or storms. The EURO continues to suggest this possibility and we have continued to keep the mention in the forecast for Sunday and Monday. This chance, however, will remain very small and only represented by a 10% to 20% pop.
The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 90 recorded at 2:46pm.
The normal daily average high is 92 and the low is 72.
Our daily records include a high of 105 from 1933. The daily record low is 54 from 1924.
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