Friday Morning Update

Friday, August 8th 2014, 4:43 am

By: Alan Crone

We're tracking another MCS type event this morning, but I anticipate this batch to mostly remain west of our immediate area. (At least, that's my plan). There is a slight chance some thunderstorm activity could persist across the I-35 corridor into the western sections of our area. Our chances will ramp up up this afternoon and possibly later tonight into Saturday morning for a few hours.

The mid-level ridge of high pressure is still near the area but is weak. This has allowed several disturbances to move into and over the top of the ridge for the last few days helping to generate showers and storms over the area. Several outflow boundaries will be near the state today and tonight with another surface boundary located across portions of northern OK. This boundary to our northwest will move southward again later in the weekend before crossing into the state Sunday. The front should finally move southward sometime Monday or Tuesday of next week but temperatures are not expected to cool down significantly.

Yesterday morning at this hour we were tracking a large area of showers and storms moving out of southeastern Kansas into northeastern OK. This morning another complex is noted on the radar to our northwest and is moving east. I anticipate most if not all of this activity will remain too far west to impact the Tulsa area this morning. A few showers or storms may cross over the I-35 corridor and impact part of Payne, Osage, or Pawnee counties before weakening. But I must stress, these types of small complexes can often survive and move further eastward than anticipated. I may end up “ now casting” this complex.

Another signal in the data supports more showers and storms developing later tonight to our northwest and moving east to southeast. This batch of showers and storms may be able to move into our area Friday late into pre-dawn Saturday before weakening shortly after dawn Saturday morning.

Sunday the surface boundary will begin slowly moving southward and a few additional showers or storms will be possible but the coverage is expected to remain low. Our forecast will keep a chance of thunderstorms in the forecast through Monday, but the higher chances will occur later today into tonight and Saturday morning across the northern third of the state into southeastern Kansas.

Some of these storms in the forecast could produce damaging down burst of wind, but the overall potential for severe thunderstorms will remain low. There may be a slightly higher chance ( not by much) for a few severe storms this afternoon with daytime heating into the 90s.

Temperatures are not expected to change much and would be more of a function of rain-cooled air masses compared to any air-mass changes. This means highs today will be in the 92 to 95 degree range along with heat index values near 100 to 104. Temperatures for both Saturday and Sunday morning lows will be near 75 followed by Saturday afternoon highs near 94 and Sunday afternoon near 93. Heat index values both days could exceed 100 but would more than likely not exceed the threshold required for heat advisories over the area. It will be close. Our friends at the NWS may end up issuing some products for part of the weekend.

The pattern next week will support the boundary moving southward by Monday or Tuesday. This will bring northeast surface winds and slightly drier air to the northern third of the state for a day or two. The upper air flow will remain favorable for additional storm complexes to move into the state by the middle and end of next week. This pattern is atypical of mid-August.

Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter.

You'll also hear me on numerous Tulsa metro radio stations including KMOD, The Twister, The Beat, and The Sports Buzz.

I'll be discussing the forecast on Radio Oklahoma News affiliates across the state this morning through the noon hour.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

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