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Sunday Snowfall Still a Likely Bet

Mike Grogan's Weather Blog: Sunday Snowfall Still a Likely Bet

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As if the past week hasn't been wintry enough for November, we are adding snow to the mix on Sunday. 

A final strong push of cold air will combine with enough forcing and moisture on the back side to create a decent-sized band of light to moderate snow that will form to our west tonight and arrive Sunday morning.  Minor snow accumulations are possible and roads could become slick and hazardous later in the day. 

Here are the details on our first snow event of the season:

First of all, the National Weather Service has posted a Winter Weather Advisory Sunday from 6 a.m. to 6 p.m. That's the timeframe when the snow will likely fall. The cold front with the frigid north winds should arrive by around sunrise along the I-44 corridor.  The cold air advection plus the snowfall will act to lower temperatures into the mid to upper 20s for most of the day.  With that being the case, the type of precipitation is really not in question – it will be snow.  While snowflakes may begin to fly around sunrise in parts of northeast Oklahoma, the heaviest band of snow won't likely arrive until midday or early afternoon.  This is a fast moving-system so the snow should be tapering off by sunset.

Initially, the snow may have trouble accumulating.  It should start out as flurries.  Ground temperatures also remain in the 40s so melting on most surfaces is likely at first.  However, as the snow rate increases and temperatures drop a bit, snow will begin to stick to more than just the grass.  Bridges and overpasses may become slick in some areas as early as mid-morning, more than likely northwest of Tulsa.  By afternoon, we can add some untreated roadways to the “slick and hazardous” category.  North of I-40, an inch of snow seems likely.  North of I-44, a band of two inches or more may occur.   Northwest of Tulsa is the most likely area to see significant travel impacts as most of our computer models peg the heaviest accumulations from Stillwater to Bartlesville into far southeast Kansas.  While there is still some wiggle room for where the heaviest snow sets up, if you live around the Tulsa area, you can expect at least a dusting with upwards of two inches possible. 

I've attached a snowfall totals estimate to this post. Don't treat it as Gospel, but let it serve as a general idea for Sunday.  Notice that areas south of I-40 are not in line to see much of the white stuff.  While light snow in the afternoon and early evening is still likely, the amounts will be light and the duration of snow will be shorter with the best forcing located near the Oklahoma-Kansas line.                       

The snow will be over Sunday night but the impacts may remain into Monday.  Untreated roads may still be slick into the start of the work week as sub-freezing temperatures remain. The core of the cold air passes by Monday so temperatures will struggle to reach the freezing mark even with sunshine.  For those wanting to resume near-normal fall weather (like myself), the anticipated warm-up begins Tuesday with highs back in the 50s Wednesday.  Nice, more seasonable weather settles in for the rest of the week with another rainy (not snowy) storm system arriving by next weekend.

For the latest on the snow, follow me on Twitter: @GroganontheGO and on my Facebook page!

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