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Dick Faurot Weather Blog: Drizzle Friday, Rain Likely Saturday into the Day Sunday

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After a cold start this morning, temperatures rebounded rather nicely this afternoon with near or slightly above normal daytime highs; notice the max/min temperature map, courtesy of the OK Mesonet. Fair skies had a lot to do with those numbers, but clouds will be increasing overnight tonight and pretty much overcast skies will prevail through the coming weekend.

As the clouds move in overnight, temperatures will drop off rather quickly early this evening, and then level off. As a result, morning lows to start the day Friday will be generally in the 40s or 15-20 degrees warmer than this morning. Along with the cloudy skies comes a chance of light rain or drizzle for Friday, but amounts will be very light. However the combination of cloudy skies and some patchy drizzle should combine to hold daytime highs in the 50s to around 60. Whatever does fall will be very light and for the most part, so will the winds. A more E to SE wind of 5-15 is expected for much of the day.

Saturday will be a different story with respect to the precipitation. Showers will be widespread with perhaps even a rumble or two of thunder, although that will be most likely over the extreme southern counties. Cloudy skies and a more S to SE wind will combine for a very mild start with morning lows only dropping into the lower 50s. Daytime highs will be in the 50s to low 60s as again the clouds and widespread showers will keep us from warming too much. This wet pattern will extend into the day Sunday and the new data runs now keep at least some lingering, wrap around showers into the afternoon and evening hours of Sunday. That means temperatures on Sunday will also exhibit a short thermometer with morning lows generally in the 50s and daytime highs in the 50s to low 60s. However, our winds will be shifting to the NW behind a cool front during the course of the day.

The widespread nature of the rain and showers should produce a good soaking and rainfall totals still look to be as much as an inch or more for many locations, particularly for the more E and SE counties. Notice the 5 day QPF map which unfortunately has W OK pretty much high and dry. That is a problem for them as the most recent drought map, notice the graphic, still has the western half of the state in a significant drought situation and we are entering what is historically our driest time of the year.

At any rate, after this system moves out by Sunday night, early next week will be mostly sunny and cooler with temperatures generally running a little below normal. However, nothing like the extremes we saw last week. Heading into Thanksgiving Day itself, the guidance is very conflicting. The European solution is usually more reliable and consistent, but this time around it is exhibiting significant run to run differences so has shown very little run to run consistency. On the other hand, the GFS, which has a tendency to move things through too quickly, has shown more run to run consistency so far. By Thanksgiving Day, their respective solutions are basically 180 degrees out of phase leaving little wiggle room for some sort of compromise. Subsequent data runs will likely smooth out those differences and produce a more consistent solution, but for now, given the more significant run to run inconsistencies exhibited by the ECMWF, we have opted to trend the forecast more towards the GFS.

That would suggest Thanksgiving Day and going into that following weekend should have fair to partly cloudy skies with seasonal temperatures for the holiday itself and somewhat milder conditions for the subsequent days. On the other hand, if the ECMWF solution turns out to be correct, then we will be significantly colder along with the potential for at least some light wintry precipitation.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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