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Dick Faurot's Weather Blog: Wet Weekend, Dry Thanksgiving Week

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Showers during the early morning hours were rather spotty, but still dropped decent rains for some locations. Notice the rainfall map since midnight, courtesy of the OK Mesonet, which shows the Mesonet site at Skiatook with just over ½ inch of rain. More rain is on the way with a disturbance aloft moving across Texas during the day Saturday. That system will keep us overcast with widespread showers/light rain/drizzle and possibly even a rumble or two of thunder. As a result, rainfall totals may be rather generous by the time it is all said and done Sunday night. Notice the 3 day QPF map which suggests the heaviest rains will be confined to Texas and far E OK, but many of us could still receive as much as an inch or so.

Don't misunderstand, although rain is likely Saturday and the chances are near 100% that does not mean it will rain all day long. As mentioned, showers are likely by morning, continuing off and on throughout the day and through that night. By Sunday morning, most of the activity should be confined to the more eastern counties before we get the wrap around that afternoon/evening.

A cool front will be arriving during the day Sunday with some wrap around precipitation expected behind it for the early evening hours. However, clearing skies are expected to quickly follow and lots of sunshine will then be the general rule for the rest of next week. That means we also expect to have a dry forecast right on through Thanksgiving Day and also for Black Friday. So, after the weekend it looks like a dry, more stable pattern will prevail which means temperatures will be the main forecast variable.

Overcast skies and a brisk SE wind along with the chance of rain/drizzle/showers will keep a short thermometer for the weekend. Temperatures tonight will hold generally in the low-mid 50s, daytime highs on Saturday well into the 50s and even some low 60s, 50s again Saturday night, and then 50s to near 60 on Sunday.

A brisk W to NW wind and sunny skies for Monday should produce daytime highs in the 50s again after starting off in the 30s that morning. Am tempted to go cooler, but the westerly downslope wind component and the fact that this is largely Pacific air should offset the presence of colder air aloft. Tuesday will be cooler with morning lows below freezing and only near 50 that afternoon, but with light northerly winds. Another cool front will be arriving during the day Wednesday followed by brisk NE winds for Thanksgiving Day and another cool down. At least the longer range guidance has come into better agreement with respect to this time frame as the GFS/ECMWF both now suggest fair to partly cloudy skies and basically dry conditions going into next weekend.

Temperatures continue to be refined though as the cool front that arrives during the day Wednesday will usher in air from Canada as opposed to the more Pacific air mass that the cool front that arrives on Sunday will bring. As a result, have dropped temperatures for Thanksgiving Day with afternoon highs now expected to hold in the 40s, but at least there will be lots of sunshine. However, this should be a short lived cool down as southerly winds will return Friday to initiate a warming trend. By the way, the longer range guidance also suggests relatively mild conditions going into that first week of December as the flow aloft will be more zonal and there are currently no indications of the anomalous, highly amplified flow of recent days.

Notice for example, the 8-14 day guidance of temperature and precipitation which has us in a relatively quiet pattern with the signal suggesting temperatures should average above normal during those days along with little or no mention of rain.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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